Memecoin Journal - Week 8 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

February 24, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • LIBRA Traders Suffer Massive Losses

  • Dogecoin Eyes Rally Amid $5,000 Stimulus Check Talks

  • Pump.fun Founder Urges Memecoin Safeguards

  • Binance Founder CZ to Aid TST and BROCCOLI Victims

  • Regulators Blamed for $4B LIBRA Memecoin Scandal

  • Scammers Launch Fake Saudi Arabia Memecoin

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 4.3% and SHIB down 7.8%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin faced a turbulent week, struggling to hold key support levels amid broader market uncertainty. After multiple failed attempts to break above $0.285, DOGE has been range-bound between $0.24 and $0.27, with analysts warning of a potential breakdown if the $0.24 support fails.

The rejection at $0.285 has added bearish pressure, and technical indicators suggest the market remains fragile.

Crypto analyst UB pointed to the H4 consolidation level as a critical point, noting that while a relief bounce is possible, weakness could lead to further downside.

On the one-hour chart, DOGE has cleanly retested key levels twice, reinforcing the risk of a decline if Bitcoin also moves lower. Another analyst, Kevin Capital, highlighted that DOGE remains below its macro golden pocket and weekly bull market support band, signaling a cautious outlook.

Despite the bearish signals, some analysts foresee a rebound. Trader Tardigrade noted that DOGE’s RSI in the four-hour timeframe has entered the oversold zone, a potential precursor to short-term price recovery.

His analysis suggests that if DOGE reclaims $0.3, it could rally toward $0.36. Meanwhile, longer-term projections remain bullish, with historical cycle patterns hinting at a future surge.

A major development this week was Elon Musk’s efforts to raise funding for X at a $44 billion valuation. News of these investment talks briefly lifted DOGE by 0.30%, reviving speculation about its potential role in X’s evolving financial ecosystem.

With X Payments LLC securing additional money transmitter licenses, the possibility of DOGE integration into Musk’s "everything app" vision remains a focal point.

If this materializes, analysts believe DOGE could see significant upside, with a breakout toward $0.50 becoming more feasible. However, resistance at $0.265 and $0.306 remains a key hurdle in the short term.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues its downward trajectory, extending a 10-week-long decline as investor sentiment weakens. The meme coin currently trades at $0.00001537, struggling to break past the key resistance level of $0.00001676. Without a shift in market momentum, SHIB risks testing the crucial support at $0.00001462.

Trading View

A breakdown below this level could trigger further losses, while reclaiming resistance might open the door for a rally toward $0.00001961 or even $0.00002000.

Market conditions remain unfavorable, with adoption rates for SHIB hitting a four-year low. The lack of fresh capital inflow has stalled growth, and both long-term and short-term holders are at a -5.5% profit, reflecting stagnation in price action. This muted sentiment suggests limited upside potential unless a broader market shift occurs.

Shiba Inu is not alone in facing challenges. The entire meme coin sector has seen a $5 billion decline in open interest since December, with major tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE), PEPE, and BONK shedding 52%, 71%, and 75% of their OI, respectively.

This trend signals waning enthusiasm for speculative assets amid a broader crypto market downturn. February 3’s market crash exacerbated the situation, dragging meme coins lower alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Adding to concerns, the collapse of the LIBRA token, linked to Argentine President Javier Milei, has intensified skepticism toward meme coins. The token’s 89% drop after its initial surge reinforced fears of manipulation, further dampening investor confidence. MEXC COO Tracy Jin warns that persistent scams in the sector could prolong recovery, as retail investors grow increasingly cautious.

With sentiment still weak and technical indicators showing no immediate signs of reversal, SHIB’s price action remains vulnerable. Investors will closely watch key levels in the coming days, as a decisive move could determine the next major trend.

Financial News

Blockchain firm Nansen revealed that 86% of LIBRA memecoin traders lost over $1,000, totaling $251 million in losses, while insiders pocketed $180 million. Barstool’s Dave Portnoy saw the largest individual loss at $6.3 million. Legal firm Burwick Law is preparing a class-action lawsuit against the project's backers, including Hayden Davis and Julian Peh.

Argentine President Javier Milei, who briefly shared the token, now faces impeachment calls. Reports suggest Milei’s sister may have been involved, though Davis denies any connection. Despite netting $100 million, Davis claims he never directly owned or sold LIBRA tokens.

Traders are turning bearish on Solana (SOL) as memecoin scandals erode sentiment. Coinalyze data shows the long-to-short ratio on futures exchanges fell from 4 to 2.5, while Binance's ratio tilted 4-to-1 in favor of shorts. Solana memecoins like BONK and WIF fueled a 213% revenue surge in Q4 2024 but now face backlash due to insider selling.

The LIBRA token collapsed by $4.4 billion, while TRUMP memecoin lost $2 billion in value. Despite these setbacks, Solana continues to outpace Ethereum in revenue generation, according to DefiLlama.

A whale transferred 20 million TRUMP worth $341.9 million from Binance, fueling bullish momentum. The memecoin surged 12.5% to $19.05, with trading volume up 25%. On-chain data shows ongoing accumulation, with $10 million in outflows from exchanges.

Open interest increased 12%, with $49.23 million in long positions at $15.92. Traders remain bullish, with key liquidation levels at $20. TRUMP has broken resistance at $17 and $19, signaling potential gains. If it holds above $19, analysts predict a 28% surge to $25.15, driven by strong market sentiment and whale accumulation.

The MELANIA memecoin will unlock 30 million tokens from February 19-20, with a structured release of 2.25% monthly thereafter. Designed to maintain controlled supply, this approach contrasts with Dogecoin’s inflationary model. However, MELANIA has already lost 90% of its value, plunging from $13.73 to $1.29.

Despite a 22% Open Interest rise and a 108% futures volume surge, daily volume has dropped from $4.2B to $49M. If demand remains weak, inflationary pressure could drive further price declines, potentially triggering liquidity issues and market instability.

Dogecoin could surge if Elon Musk and Donald Trump approve a $5,000 stimulus check funded by savings from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk’s team claims to have saved taxpayers $50 billion, with projections reaching $2 trillion. Calls for a "DOGE Dividend" mirror 2020 stimulus-driven crypto rallies.

However, concerns over inflation and lower Bloomberg-estimated savings of $16 billion cast doubt on the plan. Technically, DOGE’s Elliott Wave analysis suggests a bullish breakout, targeting $0.48—a 90% rise from current levels—unless support at $0.20 fails, invalidating the bullish outlook.

Adoption News

Pump.fun founder Alon has called for stricter guardrails on token launchpads following the collapse of the LIBRA memecoin. Shared by Argentine President Javier Milei on Feb. 15, LIBRA saw $107 million siphoned from its liquidity pool, leading to a $4.4 billion market cap loss in six hours.

Alon condemned the incident as an “insider scam” and proposed measures to enhance user safety. Meanwhile, Meteora co-founder Ben Chow resigned amid scrutiny but denied any insider involvement. Jupiter founder Meow announced an independent investigation by Fenwick and West to assess allegations surrounding LIBRA’s launch and potential misconduct.

Dubai’s Virtual Assets and Regulatory Authority (VARA) cautioned investors about the high risks of memecoins, highlighting their speculative nature, volatility, and potential for manipulation. On Feb. 13, VARA stressed that virtual assets issued in Dubai must comply with its regulations, including strict marketing rules.

Violators face fines of up to $135,000. The regulator warned that unauthorized memecoin platforms could be restricted without notice. This aligns with global regulatory scrutiny, as seen in the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority’s recent warnings. Investors are urged to verify compliance and be cautious of misleading promotions promising unrealistic returns.

Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao revealed his dog’s name, “Broccoli,” in a Feb. 13 X post, igniting a frenzy of memecoins across platforms like Solana’s Pump.fun and BNB’s Four.Meme. Over 780 Broccoli-themed tokens emerged, with one reaching a $1.5 billion market cap. CZ denied involvement, leaving it to the community.

Memecoin speculation remains high, with PancakeSwap surpassing Uniswap in trading volume. However, the rapid rise of memecoins also brings risks, including scams and rug-pulls. Traders are advised to remain cautious as the memecoin market continues its unpredictable growth.

The SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s 19b-4 filing for a spot Dogecoin ETF, marking a step toward institutional adoption. DOGE saw a slight uptick, trading at $0.2666, sitting above the 200-day MA but below the 50-day MA. The ADX at 36.58 indicates strong trend strength, though bearish momentum persists.

If approved, the ETF could boost liquidity and reduce volatility. The SEC’s decision remains uncertain, with past crypto ETFs facing delays. Traders eye the $0.30 resistance for a breakout. Institutional interest in memecoins may signal a broader shift in cryptocurrency adoption.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pledged to donate all proceeds received to victims of the TST and BROCCOLI memecoin crashes. Both tokens, which gained traction after CZ’s online mentions, surged before plummeting 60-80%, causing major losses. CZ donated 150 BNB (~$100K) to a university student already aiding LIBRA victims.

He emphasized he does not endorse these tokens and warned against speculative trading. CZ highlighted the risks of pump-and-dump schemes, urging industry figures to be cautious when discussing tokens. Despite distancing himself, he remains committed to assisting affected investors while reiterating the importance of understanding tokenomics and market risks.

Ecosystem News

The collapse of the LIBRA memecoin, linked to Argentine President Javier Milei, has sparked regulatory scrutiny. Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin criticized regulators for failing to prevent fraudulent memecoin launches, arguing that oversight is necessary to avoid future scams. While the SEC claims memecoins fall outside its jurisdiction, critics blame its inaction for enabling widespread fraud.

Others argue memecoins already have regulatory clarity as commodities, making fraud illegal. Puckrin urged the Department of Justice to prosecute bad actors, calling LIBRA’s collapse a wake-up call for stricter crypto regulations to protect investors from manipulation and financial losses.

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified strong links between the LIBRA and Melania (MELANIA) memecoins, revealing that both were likely launched by the same team. A Solana wallet, “0xcEA,” sniped both tokens at launch, profiting $2.4 million from MELANIA and $6 million from LIBRA through cross-chain transfers using Avalanche and Arbitrum.

LIBRA, endorsed by Argentina’s President Milei, collapsed 94% within hours, wiping out $107 million. MELANIA suffered a similar fate, plunging 99% after hitting a $13 billion valuation. The wallet is also linked to other pump-and-dump schemes, including a fake Robinhood (HOOD) token that peaked at $120 million.

Impersonators of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched a fraudulent KSA memecoin, exploiting investor interest in celebrity-backed tokens. The scam originated from a hacked X account, which falsely announced the token. The Saudi Law Conference later confirmed the breach and disavowed any connection.

Unlike the recent Milei-endorsed LIBRA token, which lost 94% of its value, KSA failed to attract significant capital, reaching only a $7,489 market cap. Experts warn investors to verify project legitimacy before investing, as politically linked memecoins have led to significant financial losses.

A scammer posing as Bermuda Premier David Burt created a fake X profile to promote the fraudulent “Bermuda National Coin.” The impersonator's account, which falsely displayed a government verification checkmark, significantly outperformed Burt’s real profile in follower count.

Despite the premier’s warnings and direct appeals to X and Elon Musk, the fake account remains active. This incident highlights a growing trend of memecoin scams exploiting high-profile figures, following similar schemes involving Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and Argentina’s president. Investors are urged to remain vigilant against such fraudulent promotions.

Meteora’s co-founder, Ben Chow, has resigned following backlash over the LIBRA project’s collapse. Launched on February 15 and promoted by Argentina’s President Javier Milei, LIBRA surged to a $4.56B market cap before crashing 95% in hours due to insider dumps totaling $87M.

Hayden Davis of Kelsier Ventures, linked to TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, was identified as the key orchestrator. The fallout has pressured Milei, who denied direct involvement. Meteora and Jupiter refuted claims of insider trading, maintaining their role was limited. LIBRA now trades at $0.33, down 92% from its peak.

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