Memecoin Journal - Week 7 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

February 17, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is up

  • SHIB is up

  • Harry Bolz Meme Coins Crash After Musk’s Name Reverts

  • SEC Won’t Regulate Memecoins as TRUMP Token Loses $2B

  • Galaxy, Ripple CEOs Backed TRUMP Token Launch

  • Bitcoin and Altcoins Dominate as Memecoin Hype Fades

  • CAR Memecoin Faces Deepfake Allegations

  • Pump.fun Co-Founder: Altcoins Are Like Memecoins

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE up 3.3% and SHIB up 7.4%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin has been consolidating after a 22.6% decline over the past month, currently trading at $0.2649. However, rising network activity and technical indicators suggest a potential breakout, with analysts eyeing a move toward $4.

Daily active addresses have increased from 782K to 804K in just six days, while transaction volume surged 32% to $1.42 billion. This heightened activity signals growing investor engagement and aligns with historical accumulation phases that often precede major rallies.

Market analyst Ali Martinez highlights the strengthening network fundamentals, suggesting that DOGE is primed to break out of its consolidation phase.

The MACD remains in a bullish position, reinforcing upward momentum, while the RSI at 69.34 indicates approaching overbought conditions. If buying pressure sustains without excessive profit-taking, DOGE could maintain its trajectory toward higher price levels.

Several analysts have outlined bullish projections. Tardigrade identifies an ascending channel pattern, suggesting DOGE could reach $1.50 to $2.10 in the coming months. Chandler has extended his holding strategy until March 24, expecting a major price increase.

Javon Marks presents an even more optimistic forecast, projecting a 600% rally that could push DOGE to $2.28. These forecasts align with reduced exchange inflows, indicating that investors are holding rather than selling, further strengthening the asset’s position.

While Dogecoin’s historical volatility suggests potential price swings, recent stability supports the case for a steady uptrend. If momentum persists and key resistance levels are breached, the rally toward $4 remains in play.

As institutional and retail interest continues to grow, Dogecoin’s performance in the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this bullish momentum translates into a significant breakout.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) remains locked in a downtrend despite recent whale activity suggesting potential accumulation. Over the past week, SHIB has struggled to break resistance at $0.00001676 while finding support at $0.00001462.

A mysterious wallet withdrew 151.61 billion SHIB ($2.41 million) from Coinbase, fueling speculation about large-scale accumulation. However, the wallet's lack of prior history raises questions about its true purpose. If this is an institutional move, it could indicate growing interest, but if it’s an internal exchange transfer, its impact on price may be limited.

Source: Arkham Intelligence

Investor sentiment remains weak, with more SHIB transactions occurring at a loss than in profit. This has resulted in reduced network activity, further pressuring price action. SHIB's 0.94 correlation with Bitcoin means its trajectory is closely tied to BTC’s performance.

Analysts suggest that a Bitcoin breakout above $100,000 could provide the necessary momentum for SHIB’s recovery. However, without a clear catalyst, SHIB is likely to remain range-bound.

Shiba Inu Correlation With Bitcoin. Source: Trading V

At $0.00001591, SHIB is showing early signs of a potential reversal but lacks strong confirmation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.96 suggests it is still in bearish territory, though moving away from oversold conditions.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains subdued, signaling a lack of strong accumulation. A break above $0.00001676 could open the door for a move to $0.00002000, but failure to hold above support at $0.00001462 could lead to further downside.

Market analysts emphasize the importance of Bitcoin’s influence on SHIB’s next move. If BTC remains stable, SHIB could consolidate within its current range. A decisive breakout above key resistance, supported by rising volume, is needed to confirm a bullish trend. Until then, traders should exercise caution and monitor broader market conditions.

Financial News

Dogecoin’s price action shows bullish potential, with its 4-hour RSI signaling a possible reversal from oversold levels. The memecoin recently retested a critical resistance at $0.255, with a breakout above $0.27 potentially driving DOGE to $0.50 or even $1. On-chain activity remains stable, with daily active addresses and whale transactions supporting market interest.

Historical data suggests whale movements significantly impact price trends. If engagement remains high, DOGE could rally further. However, failure to sustain current levels may push the price back to $0.24, highlighting the volatility and speculative nature of its market trajectory.

Meme coins inspired by Elon Musk’s brief name change to "Harry Bolz" on X have plummeted after he reverted to his original name. Some HARRYBOLZ tokens, which surged over 50,000% in an hour, have now lost between 50% and 80% of their value.

The frenzy, similar to past Dogecoin and FLOKI spikes, saw early traders make massive profits, with one turning $156 into $52,000. However, late buyers suffered losses as interest faded. This trend highlights Musk’s continued influence on meme coin markets, where hype-driven rallies often end in sharp declines.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated that memecoins, including TRUMP, fall outside the agency’s jurisdiction, leaving regulation to Congress or other authorities. Investors in the TRUMP token, which launched on Jan. 17, have lost $2 billion as its price plunged 80% from a $72.60 peak, reducing its market cap from $14.5 billion to $3 billion.

Despite these losses, the Trump Organization reportedly earned $100 million in trading fees. Analysts compare memecoins to collectibles rather than securities, reinforcing their speculative nature. Peirce’s remarks highlight the absence of clear regulatory oversight, despite memecoins’ growing presence in the crypto market.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has stabilized around $0.00001550 despite a 53% decline following whale sell-offs. Trading volume has increased by 20%, indicating buyer interest, but a lack of whale support limits the likelihood of an immediate rebound. The broader memecoin market remains weak, with SHIB outperforming some rivals.

Key resistance lies at $0.00002400, while RSI and MACD suggest a potential bullish reversal. If accumulation strengthens, SHIB could break out of its range between $0.00001500 and $0.00001775. However, continued consolidation is likely unless market sentiment shifts, making this a pivotal moment for long-term investors.

A mysterious whale has withdrawn 151.61 billion SHIB ($2.4 million) from Coinbase, sparking speculation of a bullish accumulation. While SHIB remains range-bound, its RSI at 39.96 suggests a move away from oversold conditions. However, with the OBV still subdued, a breakout above $0.00001750 is needed for a sustained recovery.

If resistance holds, consolidation or a retest of $0.000015 support is likely. Whale activity hints at bullish sentiment, but SHIB’s fragile momentum calls for caution. Traders should watch for confirmation before expecting a strong rally.

Adoption News

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz and Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse lent MoonPay $160 million to handle surging demand for TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins. MoonPay registered 750,000 users during launch weekend, overwhelming its liquidity. Novogratz provided $100 million, while Garlinghouse added $60 million, both repaid after accessing BlackRock accounts.

TRUMP’s market cap hit $9 billion, sparking ethical concerns. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Public Citizen called for investigations, citing potential Emoluments Clause violations and bribery risks, as the Trump Organization controls 80% of the token. Legal experts remain divided on its regulatory and constitutional implications.

Santiment reports a market shift as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other layer-1 altcoins capture 44% of crypto discussions, while memecoins drop to 4%. This trend suggests a healthier market cycle prioritizing fundamental assets over speculative tokens. Interest in memecoins surged after Trump’s token launch but has since waned.

Meanwhile, 224,410 ETH exited exchanges, signaling long-term confidence, and 14,000 dormant BTC moved after years of inactivity. Despite concerns, analysts note these BTC transfers aren’t necessarily bearish. The evolving focus on layer-1 projects highlights growing maturity in the crypto market, emphasizing security, scalability, and innovation over short-term hype.

Solana has overtaken Tron to become the second-largest blockchain by DeFi total value locked (TVL), reaching $8.6 billion—a 64% quarter-over-quarter increase. According to Messari’s Q4 2024 report, Solana’s app revenue surged 213% to $840 million, driven by speculative trading in memecoins and AI tokens.

Raydium led DeFi growth with $2.1 billion in TVL, while Jupiter Perps rose to $1.7 billion. Memecoin trading, especially post-2024 U.S. election, fueled this surge. Raydium and Pump.fun played key roles, with Raydium capturing 56% of Solana’s DEX market and Pump.fun becoming the fourth-largest DEX on the network.

Pump.fun co-founder Alon Cohen dismissed rumors of an imminent token launch, urging users to ignore unofficial claims. His statement contradicts reports from Wu Blockchain suggesting a Dutch auction-based token release with revenue-sharing features. Cohen emphasized the team’s focus on product improvements and fair user rewards.

This comes as Pump.fun faces mounting legal challenges, including lawsuits alleging unregistered securities sales and price manipulation schemes. The lawsuits, filed in January, target Baton Corporation Ltd. and key executives, citing artificial price inflation of tokens like Peanut the Squirrel. The platform remains under heightened regulatory and investor scrutiny amid these developments.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to cut $4 trillion from the federal budget, but with U.S. national debt at $36 trillion, the challenge remains immense. The Treasury has hit its debt ceiling, forcing emergency measures to sustain government operations.

Experts argue that eliminating waste won’t solve deficits unless major programs like Social Security and defense are addressed. Meanwhile, Trump’s fiscal policies, including tax cuts and military spending, are expected to push debt even higher. Despite DOGE’s efforts, fundamental structural issues in U.S. government spending remain unresolved.

Ecosystem News

The Central African Republic’s newly launched memecoin hit a $527 million market cap, but AI deepfake detectors flagged President Touadera’s announcement video as potentially fake. Concerns grew as the domain’s registration process appeared suspicious, and X suspended the memecoin’s official account.

Some speculate a hack, while others note CAR’s prior crypto ventures, including Bitcoin adoption and Sango Coin. The tokenomics match published data, but promised liquidity remains unallocated. Recent hacks targeting official X accounts add to the uncertainty. Despite skepticism, the government has yet to confirm or deny its involvement, leaving the memecoin’s legitimacy in question.

Pump.fun co-founder Alon Cohen claims most altcoins function like memecoins, offering little differentiation beyond low float, high fully-diluted valuations, and venture capital backing. He refuted claims that memecoins disrupted the altcoin market, arguing that retail investors, burned in past cycles, now prioritize fun and small profits over complex tech.

The altcoin market peaked in March 2024 before crashing in April, only recovering after Trump’s re-election. Analysts cite oversaturation as a major issue, though institutional-backed altcoins performed better due to open-market purchases supporting prices, according to Animoca Brands co-founder Yat Siu.

Hailey Welch, known as “Hawk Tuah,” spoke out after two months of silence regarding the failed HAWK memecoin. In an interview with FaZe Banks, she claimed she was misled by the project’s promoter, who promised a long-term vision and charitable contributions. Welch’s attorney stated that the developer retained 80% of the token supply.

HAWK surged to a $490 million market cap before crashing 91%, leading to investor backlash and lawsuits. Welch has since cooperated with legal teams representing victims and directed affected investors to Burwick Law for legal action against the token’s promoters.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) denied any involvement with the Test (TST) memecoin after speculation linked him to its listing. CZ reaffirmed his commitment to fundamentals, stating he had no role in TST’s launch or Binance listing. The token gained traction after a video on Four.meme, a memecoin factory, sparked interest in the Chinese crypto community.

Despite distancing himself, CZ clarified he is not against memecoins. Meanwhile, the memecoin market cap hit $76.4 billion, though Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin has warned about their risks, particularly those tied to celebrities and politicians.

Four.Meme, a Binance Smart Chain-based memecoin launch platform, suffered a malicious attack, resulting in a $183K loss and the temporary suspension of its token liquidity pool on PancakeSwap. Despite the breach, the platform assured users that internal funds remained secure.

This follows a $2.2 million exploit of Gem Pad in January. Meanwhile, Four.Meme’s native token remained resilient, rising 5% in the past 24 hours. The incident occurred shortly after BNB Chain’s test token (TST) surged 1,100% before Binance clarified its unofficial status. BNB Chain continues expanding, surpassing 500 million unique active addresses despite security concerns.

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