Memecoin Journal - Week 6 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

February 11, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • TRUMP Coin Surges 4.27%, Still Far From January Highs

  • Solana App Revenues Surge 213% in Q4

  • UAE Ministry Teams Up With Shiba Inu for Web3 Innovation

  • Neptune Digital Assets Buys 1 Million Dogecoin

  • Ulbricht-Tied Wallets Lose $12M in Memecoin Error

  • Trump Accused of Soliciting Gifts with Memecoin

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 21.1% and SHIB down 14.7%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin has shown signs of a potential breakout despite market volatility. A bullish divergence on the daily RSI suggests growing momentum, but DOGE remains within a descending wedge.

The price is consolidating below a breached demand zone, needing to hold support at $0.25 to confirm a breakout. If DOGE clears key resistance, a significant rally could unfold.

The memecoin’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has risen slightly from $4.24 million to $4.68 million, indicating modest investor interest. However, this increase is not yet a strong signal of a broader shift in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio stands at 77.7%, suggesting DOGE is fairly valued but not overbought. Further gains require increased buying interest, and if the ratio climbs higher, a price correction could follow.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI at 40.96 reflects neutral momentum, while the Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a weak trend, with bearish pressure still dominant.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 24.53 suggests that the market lacks strong trend strength, but an uptick in buying momentum could push DOGE past its current consolidation phase.

Crypto analyst Bluntz sees potential for a memecoin comeback, predicting a 200% DOGE rally if it follows Elliott Wave theory.

He notes DOGE has completed an ABC correction against both USD and BTC, setting the stage for a fresh five-wave move upward.

FLOKI also shows a bullish divergence, reinforcing the idea that the meme token market could be rebounding.

Broader market trends add context to DOGE’s outlook. The TOTAL3 chart, which tracks altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has reclaimed a breakdown level and could reach $1.3 trillion. If this momentum sustains, it could provide the necessary support for DOGE to break out and confirm its bullish trajectory.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has gained attention this week after announcing a partnership with the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure.

This marks SHIB’s transition from a memecoin to a more prominent blockchain player, with ShibOS being integrated into federal operations focused on energy and infrastructure. The announcement has helped SHIB see a rebound over the past 24 hours.

Despite this positive news, SHIB is still recovering from a broader market correction affecting Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are stabilizing after a selloff. SHIB has been trading within a year-long symmetrical triangle pattern, with recent declines triggered by rejection at $0.000033 resistance.

Following new trade tariffs announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump, SHIB dipped to $0.00001218 but has since bounced back to $0.000016, with support from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The MACD shows signs of a reversal, with the blue line attempting to cross above the signal line. If SHIB follows its historical trend, it could target the 50-day SMA, and a breakout above this level might push the price toward the upper resistance near $0.000024. Despite a 45% drop over the past 60 days, SHIB’s recent price action and technical indicators suggest a potential recovery ahead.

Financial News

The Official TRUMP memecoin surged by 4.27% in the past 24 hours, reaching $18.50 with a $3.7 billion market cap. Despite this, it remains 75.36% down from its all-time high of $75.35 in January.

Initially launched by CIC Digital, linked to Trump’s campaign, TRUMP coin briefly reached a market cap of $75 billion but has since faced significant volatility, losing 42% in value in the past week. Still, it remains one of the top meme coins, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin in the last 24 hours, with real-world use cases like payments through Solana Pay.

Solana’s application revenues saw a 213% increase in Q4 2024, reaching $840 million, driven by memecoin speculation. Revenues peaked in November at $367 million, with the memecoin launchpad Pump.fun generating $235 million, a 242% increase. Other platforms like Photon and Raydium also saw over 250% growth.

DeFi and AI-related coins contributed to this surge. Solana's decentralized exchange volume grew 150%, and the network became a leader for AI agent tokens. By the end of Q4, Solana's total value locked (TVL) reached $8.6 billion, making it the second-largest blockchain by TVL.

A massive transfer of 1.239 trillion Shiba Inu (SHIB), valued at $20.136 million, has been moved from Kraken to an unknown wallet, fueling speculation of accumulation despite recent market declines. SHIB's price has dropped over 35%, reaching a crucial support level of $0.000015.

If this support holds, SHIB could rally by 30% to $0.000020. Current market sentiment is bearish, but the price action could trigger significant liquidations at key levels. SHIB is trading below the 200 EMA, signaling a downtrend, but this could present a buying opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound.

Floki (FLOKI) has seen a sharp 187% rise in whale inflows, fueling a 9.78% price surge to $0.0001005. This uptick coincides with Floki’s Stocktwits marketing campaign, which aims to showcase its trading bot. Large holders have significantly increased their capital inflows, and buy orders now outpace sell orders, indicating strong accumulation.

Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish crossover, reinforcing the uptrend. If momentum continues, FLOKI could break $0.00011 and test $0.00012 resistance. However, a reversal could drive prices down to $0.000094.

MELANIA, down 87.6% from its $13.63 peak, is showing bullish momentum as it trades within a $1.395–$1.73 range. The OBV has been trending higher, forming higher lows, while the RSI has moved above neutral 50, signaling strong buying pressure. If momentum sustains, a breakout above $1.73 could push MELANIA toward the $2–$2.1 resistance zone, a key psychological and technical level.

However, failure to break resistance may keep it within its current range. The altcoin market’s recent volatility adds further uncertainty, but short-term indicators suggest a potential move higher in the coming sessions.

Adoption News

The UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (MOEI) has partnered with Shiba Inu to enhance public service efficiency and implement Web3 solutions across energy, infrastructure, and other sectors. This collaboration aims to support green infrastructure, improve citizen governance models, and unify energy operations. MOEI's Sharif Al Olama emphasized the ministry's commitment to digital excellence and sustainability.

Shytoshi Kusama from Shiba Inu highlighted the project's potential to foster innovation, transparency, and environmentally-conscious solutions, setting a global benchmark for civic and business collaborations through Web3 technology.

Neptune Digital Assets, a publicly traded Canadian firm, purchased 1 million Dogecoin for around $258,000, as part of its strategy to diversify its corporate reserve. The acquisition, made in December 2024, follows a trend of companies increasing their cryptocurrency holdings beyond Bitcoin, including volatile altcoins like Dogecoin.

Neptune also bought nearly $2 million worth of Bitcoin earlier in 2025, raising its total Bitcoin stash to 327 BTC, worth about $32 million. This move aligns Neptune with other firms emulating MicroStrategy’s approach to accumulating digital assets for potential high returns.

The SEC's potential shift under new leadership could accelerate the approval of a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, as DOGE is not classified as a security, unlike XRP or Solana. With Paul Atkins potentially taking over as SEC chairman, decisions regarding the legal status of cryptocurrencies could move faster.

President Trump's executive order on digital assets may also influence favorable regulations for Dogecoin. Investment firms like Bitwise have already registered for a Dogecoin spot ETF, seeing DOGE as a viable investment asset. As of now, DOGE trades at $0.2675, down 1.14% in the last 24 hours.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen significant whale activity, with large holders acquiring 560 million DOGE despite a 23% drop in price from January’s highs. This surge in accumulation follows intensifying speculation about a U.S. spot ETF, fueled by Grayscale's potential conversion of its Dogecoin Trust into an ETF.

Polymarket's odds for a U.S. DOGE ETF reached a record 58%, reflecting growing optimism. However, despite these developments, DOGE’s price remains stagnant, consolidating between $0.30 and $0.40. A break below $0.30 could occur, but positive macroeconomic news might push the price higher.

Errol Musk, father of Elon Musk, is aiming to raise $200 million through the launch of his own memecoin, Musk It (MUSKIT), to support the Musk Institute, a for-profit think tank. While the token was initially launched in December 2024 by a Middle Eastern crypto firm, it has since lost over 50% of its value, currently trading at $0.02 with a market cap of $25 million.

Despite Musk’s name recognition, experts suggest the project may struggle to achieve significant success without Elon Musk’s endorsement, though investor interest in memecoins continues to rise.

Ecosystem News

Burwick Law and Wolf Popper, the law firms behind a class-action lawsuit against Pump.fun, have denied creating the DOGSHIT2 memecoin, despite speculation sparked by a court document linking a wallet address to the token. The lawsuit claims Pump.fun facilitated unregistered securities worth nearly $500 million.

Burwick Law clarified that the token’s creation occurred after a buyer purchased it, crediting them as the creator. At its peak, DOGSHIT2’s market cap reached $23 million, but it has since fallen to around $2.4 million. The coin's price briefly surged before experiencing a 34% drop.

On February 5, 2025, both the Solana-based decentralized exchange aggregator Jupiter and former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had their X accounts hacked. Scammers used the compromised accounts to promote fraudulent tokens, including the memecoin "MEOW," which briefly hit a $30 million market cap before crashing.

Additionally, Mohamad’s account was hijacked to endorse the "MALAYSIA" token, which peaked at $3.4 million but soon collapsed. These attacks underscore the rising threats of scams and account hijacking on social media platforms.

Crypto wallets associated with Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road, lost $12 million after mispricing a fan-made memecoin, ROSS, on the decentralized exchange Raydium. Ulbricht or a wallet operator accidentally set the wrong price for the token, triggering a MEV bot to purchase $1.5 million of the token and sell it for a profit.

A second misstep resulted in another $10.5 million loss. Despite the setback, the wallets still hold 10% of the token supply, valued at around $200,000. Ulbricht was pardoned in January 2025, following his conviction for running Silk Road.

Public Citizen has called for an investigation into President Donald Trump's promotion of his memecoin, accusing him of soliciting gifts from his followers in violation of federal law. The organization alleges that Trump’s posts on Truth Social, urging followers to buy the TRUMP memecoin after taking office, could be considered illegal gift solicitation.

Although Trump is exempt from some gift restrictions, Public Citizen claims his actions might breach the law by requesting money with no tangible product. The memecoin's market capitalization rose sharply but has since declined significantly.

Burwick Law and Wolf Popper have sent a cease and desist letter to Solana memecoin platform Pump.fun, demanding the removal of over 200 tokens infringing on their intellectual property. The tokens, including "Dog Shit Going NoWhere" (DOGSHIT2), impersonated the firms' logos, names, and employees, disrupting ongoing litigation.

Despite the legal risks, Pump.fun has not removed the tokens. The firms allege that the platform's actions, including using memecoins to intimidate clients, threaten due process. Burwick Law recently filed a class-action lawsuit against Pump.fun, claiming violations of securities laws and seeking monetary damages.

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