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- Memecoin Journal - Week 52 2024
Memecoin Journal - Week 52 2024
Weekly update on all things Memecoins
TL;DR
DOGE is up
SHIB is up
Memecoin predictions 2025 – Will they finally learn their lessons from 2024’s rallies?
Dogecoin: Analyzing the impact of a 155% address surge on DOGE’s prices
MEXC lists XRPL meme coin PHNIX
Popcat's Price Decline and Market Share Loss in the Solana Meme Coin Market
The Future of Dogecoin: Utility, Transparency, and Regulatory Pressures
Rise of Meme Coins on the XRP Ledger: PHNIX Leads the Charge
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Dogecoin Price
Crypto is up this week, with DOGE being up 0.77% and SHIB up 2.84%:
Dogecoin (DOGE) Weekly Analysis
Market Performance
Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing mixed performance this week. As of now, DOGE is priced at $0.3142, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.06% in the last 24 hours, with a live market cap of $46.3 billion. DOGE boasts a circulating supply of 147.31 billion coins and a max supply of 147.37 billion. Trading volume in the last 24 hours stands at $3 billion. Interestingly, DOGE's price is now accessible in INR, expanding its reach to Indian traders.
Historical data suggests that December is a significant month for Dogecoin, with an average monthly growth of 22.2% over the last decade. However, DOGE is currently down 23% this month. For the coin to align with its historical average, a rally of 50% would be required in the remaining days of December. Despite the challenge, analysts remain optimistic, citing November's impressive 161.5% growth as a potential catalyst. With ongoing bullish momentum in the market, investors are watching closely to see if DOGE can replicate its previous December achievements.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
DOGE/USD is currently trading at $0.3202, reflecting a 0.93% intraday increase despite a 11.17% drop in trading volume to $2.31 billion. The coin has rebounded from a low of $0.3103 and is eyeing the 50 EMA resistance level at $0.36, which could reignite investor optimism. Historically, December has been a landmark month for DOGE, marked by its first $1 billion market cap milestone seven years ago.
While investor confidence remains subdued due to lingering price fluctuations, the meme coin’s resilience suggests potential for a strong finish to the year. Analysts argue that DOGE’s ecosystem must rally significant support to achieve the required momentum. With its historic record and rising adoption, December might still hold surprises for Dogecoin enthusiasts, making it a key player to watch in the crypto market.
is inevitable
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
3:53 PM • Nov 25, 2024
Financial News
Dogecoin (DOGE), the largest meme coin, is at risk of a significant price drop due to a bearish price pattern and unfavorable market sentiment. On December 26, the broader cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a sharp decline, intensifying bearish activity across assets. Technical analysis indicates that DOGE is teetering on the lower boundary of its consolidation zone at $0.30. If it closes below this level, it could trigger a 25% decline, dropping to $0.22. However, should the coin maintain its position above $0.30, the bearish outlook may fail to materialize.
On-chain metrics further highlight traders’ pessimism, with DOGE’s Long/Short Ratio falling to 0.71, the lowest since early December. Nearly 58.3% of top traders are holding short positions, indicating strong bearish sentiment. Despite this, long-term holders appear to be accumulating DOGE, as exchanges recorded a $32.75 million outflow, signaling a potential buying opportunity. At press time, DOGE trades near $0.315, with its trading volume dropping by 13%, reflecting waning market participation and lingering fears of further decline.
BonkDAO recently burned 1.69 trillion BONK tokens, reducing the total supply by 1.8%, which may seem like a deflationary measure intended to increase the token’s value. However, despite the $54.52 million worth of tokens being removed from circulation, BONK has struggled to break through key resistance levels, particularly at $0.00003517. At press time, the token was trading at $0.00003144, reflecting a 6.50% decline in the past 24 hours. Market sentiment remains bearish, with traders betting on a further decline, as evidenced by the high short interest (70.03% short positions compared to 29.97% long positions).
While the token burn could theoretically reduce supply and lead to price appreciation, the current market environment and weak technical indicators suggest limited immediate effects on BONK's price. Social engagement has also significantly dropped, indicating a decline in market interest. The ADX indicates weak trend momentum, and the MACD is showing negative signals, further suggesting that there’s insufficient buying pressure to push prices higher. Without a new catalyst, it seems unlikely that the recent token burn will trigger a significant rally in the short term.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has shown a decline of 11% over the last 30 days, currently trading at $0.0000223, with rising sell-side pressure and a lack of fresh demand contributing to its sluggish performance. On the one-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both point to bearish momentum, indicating that selling activity remains dominant. If the selling pressure is exhausted without new buying interest, SHIB might continue consolidating at lower price levels, possibly revisiting the uncollected liquidity at $0.0000185. However, if buyers step in, SHIB could see a reversal, with the potential to target the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $0.0000259.
Despite the bearish trends, Shiba Inu whale activity has seen a significant uptick, with large transactions exceeding $100,000 rising three-fold from 1.07 trillion to 3.75 trillion SHIB in 24 hours. This indicates renewed interest from whales, although it still remains below the weekly average, suggesting that broader market participation is needed to drive price movement. The derivatives market also reflects a bearish outlook, with a drop in Open Interest and speculative activity. The success of a potential rally in 2025 could depend on broader market trends and external factors, such as the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, which could influence SHIB’s price trajectory.
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has experienced a notable price surge, fueled by a strategic $2.47 million investment by a whale who accumulated 79.9 million tokens, achieving a substantial unrealized profit. This influx of whale activity has propelled PENGU's price up by 15.35% to $0.04062, breaking the critical $0.0385 resistance level. The token is now targeting $0.0699 as the next milestone, with rising trading volumes and bullish technical indicators like the RSI and MACD confirming the strength of the rally. However, traders are cautious, as a sustained breakout above $0.042 is needed for the rally to gain further momentum.
Despite the bullish momentum, PENGU's Social Dominance has seen a dip, and market sentiment remains mixed as traders await confirmation of the rally's sustainability. Short liquidations have outweighed long liquidations, indicating increased confidence in the token’s potential. The rise in Open Interest by 42.24% to $236.55 million reflects growing participation from both retail and institutional investors, which could support further price movements. As PENGU gains traction, it could signal the start of a broader meme token resurgence, and if key resistance levels are broken, PENGU might lead the next meme token rally.
Popcat, a Solana-based meme coin, has experienced a dramatic decline in its price, falling over 62% from its peak in 2024. Despite soaring by more than 4,400% earlier this year, Popcat’s market cap has dropped to $762 million, and it has lost its position as the second-largest Solana meme coin, falling to sixth place behind tokens like Pudgy Penguins, Dogwifhat, Fartcoin, and ai16z. This drop can be attributed to a decline in smart money investors, with the number of such holders falling from over 70 to 30, and a noticeable increase in the number of Popcat tokens available on exchanges, suggesting that investors are selling off their holdings.
In addition to the market share loss, Popcat’s price chart signals a bearish outlook, forming several negative patterns. The token has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern and a bearish pennant, which typically precedes further declines. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages have also formed a bearish crossover, signaling further downside potential. Popcat’s price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and analysts are watching for a further drop to the 78.6% retracement level, which would represent a 42% decline from its current price.
Adoption News
Floki DAO has proposed allocating $2.8 million worth of its treasury to fund the launch of a Floki exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe. The ETP aims to offer institutional investors exposure to the memecoin through the SIX Swiss Exchange, one of Europe’s largest stock exchanges. The DAO is working with an undisclosed asset manager, and if approved, the ETP is expected to go live in early Q1 2025. Voting on the proposal, which began on Dec. 25, has so far seen unanimous support, with the final decision expected by Dec. 27.
If successful, Floki will join Dogecoin as the second memecoin with a registered ETP, signaling growing institutional interest in the memecoin sector. While the proposal didn’t significantly impact Floki’s price, the token has seen a 400% gain since the beginning of the year, despite recent declines. As the seventh-largest memecoin by market cap at $1.7 billion, this move positions Floki for increased adoption and legitimacy among mainstream financial institutions.
In 2024, memecoins emerged as the most captivating narrative in the crypto industry, capturing nearly 31% of investor interest, according to a CoinGecko study. Speculative tokens like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu led the pack, with the memecoin market cap reaching $113.2 billion. Solana-based memecoins garnered significant attention, ranking as the fourth-largest narrative, while those on Coinbase’s Base blockchain took 11th place. Although risky and often short-lived, memecoins provided opportunities for savvy traders to reap quick gains, solidifying their influence in the broader market rally, which also saw Bitcoin increase by 123% year-to-date.
While memecoins took the spotlight, AI-related crypto tokens remained a strong contender, capturing nearly 13% of interest, up from the previous year. AI agents, a subset of this narrative, demonstrated their potential by driving the obscure memecoin GOAT to a $1.3 billion valuation. Despite a smaller market share, the $44.8 billion AI crypto token market continues to grow, led by projects like Near Protocol and Internet Computer. Together, memecoins and AI tokens highlight the speculative yet dynamic nature of the crypto market in 2024.
Memecoins, driven by viral trends and community enthusiasm, have continued to defy expectations, thriving on speculation and cultural relevance rather than utility. However, as the market evolves, memecoins face increasing pressure from institutional investors who demand utility, transparency, and value-driven projects. The remarkable 2024 rallies, particularly Dogecoin's meteoric rise, showcased the power of community-driven growth. Yet, as interest shifts toward more robust sectors like AI and decentralized science (DeSci), memecoins must adapt to maintain relevance. This includes introducing utility in areas such as gaming, NFTs, or DeFi, while staying true to their meme-driven identity.
As regulatory scrutiny increases and the focus on transparency heightens, memecoins are being forced to navigate challenges that could reshape their future. While they may have struggled with utility, incorporating features like zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) and cross-chain interoperability offers a path to enhance both privacy and liquidity. For memecoins to survive, they must embrace transparency through decentralized exchanges and align with evolving standards. The future of memecoins lies in blending cultural narratives with real-world use cases and adapting to the industry's shift toward utility, ensuring they remain a meaningful segment of the crypto ecosystem.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen a significant uptick in network activity, particularly in the number of new and active addresses. Over the past week, new addresses have surged by over 102%, active addresses by 111%, and zero-balance addresses have grown by an impressive 155%. These statistics highlight increased user engagement, suggesting a growing interest in the DOGE ecosystem. Despite these gains in adoption metrics, the transaction volume has dipped, with daily transactions falling below 40,000. This discrepancy points to a need for improved utility to sustain long-term growth, even as the network attracts more users.
Market sentiment remains positive, with Open Interest rising by 6.38%, signaling confidence in DOGE’s future potential. Technical indicators also show signs of a potential recovery, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches oversold levels, suggesting an upward price correction could be on the horizon. However, for Dogecoin to maintain momentum and strengthen its position, it needs to bridge the gap between increasing user adoption and transaction activity. With rising network engagement and bullish trader sentiment, DOGE could be poised for growth if it can enhance its utility and overcome current limitations.
The PHNIX meme coin, launched on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), has reached a significant milestone with its listing on the centralized exchange MEXC on December 27. This marks the first major CEX to list a meme coin from the XRPL, further enhancing the token's visibility. PHNIX, which launched on December 3, was previously only available on XRPL’s decentralized exchange FirstLedger. Upon its listing on MEXC, the token surged by over 116%, with the PHNIX/USDT trading pair witnessing over $425k worth of trades in the past 24 hours. The coin has a total supply of 589 billion, and this move indicates growing interest in meme coins within the XRPL ecosystem.
PHNIX’s rise aligns with the broader surge in interest for XRP, particularly after the U.S. SEC's legal decision in July 2023 that XRP is not a security. This ruling helped drive bullish sentiment, contributing to a broader rebound for the XRP community and its associated projects. Meme coins like PHNIX, ARMY, and XPILL have gained traction, with PHNIX now considered a mascot of the XRP blockchain. This growing ecosystem of meme coins reflects the expanding role of XRP beyond its primary utility, with the community continuing to embrace these tokens as part of the cultural identity tied to the blockchain.
Ecosystem News
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has made headlines with his generous adoption of Moo Deng, a pygmy hippopotamus that became a viral sensation this year. With a donation of 88 ETH (equivalent to $292,000) to Thailand's Khao Kheow Open Zoo, Buterin has supported the zoo's Wildlife Sponsorship Program, marking his contribution to both wildlife conservation and the crypto community. Moo Deng's playful personality and social media presence have captured global attention, and Buterin's gesture underscores the intersection of crypto wealth and philanthropy.
Meanwhile, James Howells continues his legal battle to recover a hard drive containing the private keys to 8,000 Bitcoin, now worth $773 million. Lost in a landfill in 2013, the drive has become the subject of a high-stakes lawsuit. Despite environmental barriers imposed by the Newport City Council, Howells remains determined, backed by an expert legal team and AI-driven tools. If successful, Howells plans to finance blockchain projects and contribute to the crypto ecosystem, demonstrating the resilience and ambition within the cryptocurrency community.
Solana-based memecoin BONK executed its much-anticipated “BURNmas” event on Dec. 26, removing 1.69 trillion tokens worth $51 million from circulation. Despite this effort to reduce supply, the token’s price dropped 7.2%, reflecting the broader crypto market decline. The burn, originally slated for Christmas Day, exceeded its initial target but faced criticism from the community for delays and poor communication. BONK enthusiasts voiced concerns about transparency, with some warning of eroded trust in the project.
While token burns typically aim to enhance price by reducing supply, BONK has yet to replicate the success of its November burn event, which drove a 56% price surge and an all-time high market cap. As of now, BONK holds its position as the fourth-largest memecoin in the $105 billion memecoin market, trailing Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. However, lingering community dissatisfaction highlights the importance of trust and timely execution in maintaining investor confidence.
The year 2024 marked a turning point for the crypto industry, characterized by significant comebacks and broader legitimacy. Ripple Labs emerged victorious in a protracted legal battle against the SEC, solidifying XRP's role in cross-border payments. Ripple’s partnerships with over 300 financial institutions and its robust market performance—outpacing Bitcoin with a 251% annual gain—highlighted its resilience. Concurrently, memecoins experienced a remarkable revival, with tokens like PEPE and Dogwifhat delivering gains exceeding 1,200%. These memecoins, often dismissed as trivial, have integrated culture, humor, and financial innovation, gaining traction among retail investors and even influencing politics.
The rise of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization was another critical narrative in 2024, driven by BlackRock’s Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which surpassed $500 million in market cap. By bridging traditional finance with blockchain technology, RWAs unlocked liquidity and accessibility for investors. Innovations like tokenized treasury funds and marketplaces for unconventional assets such as uranium emphasized blockchain’s potential to enhance existing financial systems. Collectively, these developments underscore the crypto industry’s increasing relevance and its ability to adapt and thrive amid regulatory and market challenges.
