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- Memecoin Journal - Week 51 2024
Memecoin Journal - Week 51 2024
Weekly update on all things Memecoins
TL;DR
DOGE is down
SHIB is down
Shiba Inu, Bonk, Pepe Prices Rebound: Beware of Dead Cat Bounce
FARTCOIN Surges as Binance Announces Futures Listing
Meme Coin Trader Records $3M Profit With ELIZA Trading Amid Launch Controversy
Deep Worm Price Rockets 180% With Arthur Hayes Predicting Further Rally
Shiba Inu Coin Lead Slams Litecoin As It Changes Identity To Meme Coin
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Dogecoin Price
Crypto is up this week, with DOGE being down 22.61% and SHIB down 22.69%:

Dogecoin (DOGE) Weekly Analysis
Market Overview
Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a volatile week, with its price dropping by 4.54% in the past 24 hours to $0.3119 as of the latest update. Its market cap stands at $45.95 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5 billion. Notably, DOGEās circulating supply is near its maximum cap of 147.3 billion coins. A positive development for Indian investors is the ability to view DOGE prices in INR, reflecting its growing global accessibility.

Despite the recent dip, analysts like Dima James and Trader Tardigrade remain optimistic. Dima predicts DOGE could reach a cycle high of $80 by mid-2025, citing historical patterns and Bitcoinās influence. He projects DOGEās cycle peak will occur three to four weeks after Bitcoinās top, expected between February 11 and May 7, 2025. Meanwhile, Trader Tardigrade points to technical indicators like the Fibonacci level and the Gaussian channel, suggesting DOGE may have found a local bottom and is poised for a bullish reversal.
Technical Analysis
DOGEās short-term price movement has been marked by strong resistance and potential support levels. It recently halted its downtrend near the Gaussian channelās mid-band, indicating a pause in selling pressure. A Doji Dragonfly candle on the daily chart adds weight to the argument for a local bottom. Traders eye $0.33 as a critical price point, with a break above this range signaling the potential for a rally toward the psychological $1 mark.
Market Outlook
Dogecoin enters its final cycle year, historically its most significant. Analysts anticipate 2025 could outperform previous cycles due to increased adoption and technological advancements. With DOGE showing signs of stability and potential for a bullish reversal, the meme coin remains a key contender for investors seeking opportunities in altcoins.
is inevitable
ā Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
3:53 PM ⢠Nov 25, 2024
Financial News
In a recent development, Dogecoin (DOGE) whales have acquired an additional 250 million DOGE, worth around $80 million, signaling significant institutional interest in the memecoin. This accumulation suggests that large investors are positioning themselves for possible market movements, especially in light of recent price fluctuations. While it remains uncertain whether these whales anticipate a rally or are simply navigating ongoing price swings, their actions highlight the dominant role whale transactions play in the Dogecoin market, often influencing sentiment and liquidity. Current price levels near $0.31 indicate a crucial point, with some market analysts expecting a rebound if DOGE can regain momentum.
Whale activity in the Dogecoin market has been a key factor in recent volatility, with large transactions often coinciding with significant price movements. The current market situation has created mixed sentiments, with some investors cautiously optimistic, while others remain uncertain due to declining trading volumes and diminishing retail enthusiasm. If DOGE can reclaim the $0.35 mark, it might spark bullish momentum, but failure to maintain support above $0.30 could lead to further downside. The coming weeks will likely determine whether Dogecoin can stabilize and recover from recent volatility.
Floki (FLOKI) has recently formed a bearish double-top pattern on its one-day chart, signaling a potential downtrend despite a 9% gain in the last 24 hours. While the broader crypto market saw a recovery, FLOKI remains down by 21% over the past week. The formation of this double-top pattern indicates a prevailing negative long-term trend. If FLOKI fails to break resistance at the $0.000207 neckline, the downtrend could resume, leading to further price declines. However, a successful breakout above this level could lead to a reversal and more gains, suggesting that the memecoin is at a critical juncture.
Despite recent price action, the lack of conviction in the FLOKI market is evident in the decline of open interest, which fell by 10% despite the recent gains. This suggests that traders are not fully confident in the rally's sustainability, and low market participation could undermine the uptrend. Key support levels at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $0.000166 and a demand zone between $0.000166 and $0.000172 will be pivotal in determining FLOKI's future price direction. A drop below these levels could trigger panic selling, while maintaining these support levels could attract new buyers and sustain the uptrend.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been struggling to regain momentum as retail interest fades and the speculative nature of the memecoin market begins to show its impact. While DOGE saw a brief 11% jump amid a broader market recovery, it faces significant challenges in reaching its previous high of $0.50, a level it hasn't seen in three years. Despite a potential rebound indicated by its low Relative Strength Index (RSI), DOGEās notorious volatility and the growing control of large holders (whales) suggest that any short-term gains may be fleeting. Retail investors, who have traditionally fueled DOGE's price movements, are showing signs of fatigue, and the increasing dominance of whales is shifting the market dynamics.
For DOGE to reach $0.50, it will need more than just speculative momentum. A perfect confluence of factors, including bullish Bitcoin momentum, a fresh influx of retail investors, and a reduction in whale manipulation, is required for a sustained breakout. Without these catalysts, DOGE may face continued consolidation, with large holders continuing to shape the market. In the short term, whale-driven buying could push DOGE back to the $0.40 mark, but whether it can break through the $0.50 barrier remains uncertain, and the risk for retail investors remains high.
BONK has experienced a significant decline of 59% from November 20 to December 20, with strong bearish signals indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and On-Balance Volume (OBV). Despite recent struggles, including a sharp drop triggered by Bitcoin's rejection at the $100k level, the memecoin is attempting to bounce back. Currently, BONK is testing key support and resistance levels, with a possible price bounce to $0.00004. However, whether this level can transition into a bullish market structure will depend largely on the inflow of capital and whether BONK can close above $0.0000394 on the daily chart.
The $0.00004 resistance zone is critical, as it has flipped between support and resistance in recent weeks. A breakthrough above this level could indicate a potential bullish reversal. However, technical analysis suggests that if BONK fails to push above this resistance, it may continue its struggle, with bearish momentum still dominating the market. Liquidity data supports the idea of a price retest around $0.00004, with a short-term consolidation range expected between $0.0000322 and $0.000035. The coming days could determine whether BONK can overcome this resistance and shift the market structure toward a more bullish outlook.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has faced significant bearish pressure, with a steep 35% drop in price over the past week. Despite a promising partnership with Chainlink to enhance Shibarium's operations through the adoption of the CCT standard for blockchain interoperability, the selling pressure remains intense. The deal aims to boost Shibarium's efficiency, especially in DeFi, but it is unlikely to yield immediate benefits for SHIB in the short term. While SHIB was nearing oversold levels according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which suggests a potential bounce, large outflows from whale holders have intensified the bearish momentum, further pushing down the price.
Although the partnership with Chainlink could signal longer-term growth and recovery potential for Shiba Inu, the market remains largely driven by short-term selling, particularly from large holders. Despite some whale accumulation and signs of dip-buying, the overall sentiment remains negative, with outflows outpacing inflows. The price remains below critical Fibonacci levels, and while there are hopes for a potential re-accumulation phase, the prevailing trend suggests more challenges ahead. SHIBās performance will likely depend on its ability to overcome the current selling pressure and sustain investor confidence.
Adoption News
Haliey Welch, the influencer behind the viral "Hawk Tuah" video clip, has responded to accusations of a rug pull involving the Hawk Tuah (HAWK) token, which launched on December 4. The memecoin initially reached a market cap of $500 million but quickly plummeted by 90%. This drastic drop prompted accusations of the project being a rug pull, and a lawsuit was filed by investors against the creators, though Welch herself was not named as a defendant. In a statement, Welch expressed full cooperation with legal representatives and urged affected users to contact lawyers, emphasizing her commitment to taking the situation seriously.
Welch, known for her TikTok fame, saw her likeness used to promote the HAWK token, which was linked to the memecoin. While blockchain data reveals that one wallet made significant profits by sniping HAWK tokens, many investors faced substantial losses after the token's rapid rise and fall. It remains unclear whether Welch or the project founders could face legal consequences from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), especially given the regulatory scrutiny surrounding the classification of tokens as securities. With upcoming changes in the SEC's leadership, the outcome remains uncertain.
Fartcoin, the meme coin based on the Solana blockchain, has seen a meteoric rise in price and market cap, reaching an all-time high of $1.30 and hitting a market cap of $1 billion. This surge was driven by the announcement that Binance Futures would list the Fartcoin perpetual futures contract. The listing, which took place on December 20, also included other tokens like AIXBT and CGPT, leading to a broad uptick in their prices. Fartcoin's recent performance has been exceptional, with a 50% gain in the past week and an overall rise of more than 370% in the last month.
The listing of Fartcoin futures on Binance Futures comes as part of the platformās expansion, offering up to 75x leverage. The announcement is also tied to Binance's new initiative, Binance Alpha, which highlights early-stage projects. As Fartcoin continues to attract traders, its 24-hour trading volume surged to over $315 million, signaling increasing market interest and activity. While Binance has yet to list Fartcoin on its spot market, its inclusion in Binance Alpha has fueled a bullish sentiment among traders, propelling the coin's popularity.
A meme coin trader has made headlines after turning a $1.9K investment into a staggering $3.67 million in just two hours by trading the newly launched ELIZA token. The trader, identified by the address ExYQ, bought 89.19 million ELIZA tokens and later sold half of them for a significant profit. This 1,925x return on investment caught the attention of the crypto market, raising questions about whether the trader was an insider or a savvy market participant. The profit-making activity coincided with the controversial launch of the token, where another trader allegedly dumped a different token to fund ELIZA, sparking further speculation.
Amid the excitement, controversy surrounds the ELIZA token's launch, as the projectās team, led by Shaw from ai16z, clarified that their intended launch had been delayed, only for an unknown group to release a token under the same name. Shaw described the situation as frustrating but revealed that the team worked with the creators of the competing token to avoid negative consequences for the ELIZA launch. The confusion around the tokenās origins and the high-profile trading activity has led to market discussions, with some speculating about insider trading or coordinated moves by crypto whales.
Deep Worm (WORM) has experienced a dramatic 180% price increase, attracting significant attention in the meme coin sector. This surge has been fueled by optimistic sentiment in the broader crypto market, with notable figures like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes making bullish predictions about the token. Hayes, known for his candid views, referred to WORM as a narrative-driven DeSci (Decentralized Science) project, acknowledging its questionable utility but expressing confidence in its potential for massive valuation growth. This endorsement has contributed to the assetās rally, despite ongoing market volatility.
The price increase of WORM highlights a growing interest in meme coins, driven largely by speculative investment and community sentiment. The surge coincides with broader optimism in the crypto market, particularly after Donald Trumpās election victory, which has sparked speculation about pro-crypto policies and favorable regulatory changes. This optimism, coupled with Hayesā backing, has ignited renewed interest in Deep Worm, with market experts predicting that the rally could continue. This movement mirrors a larger trend of investors seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities in the crypto space.
Shytoshi Kusama, the lead developer of Shiba Inu (SHIB), recently sparked controversy by criticizing Litecoin (LTC) for rebranding itself as a meme coin. In a series of posts on X, Kusama expressed dismay over Litecoin's new identity, especially its use of a meme-themed stick figure logo. He humorously remarked that the shift seemed part of a "memevengers" group, positioning himself as a "Thanos" figure in the meme coin sector. His comments have ignited reactions within the crypto community, including playful jabs between Kusama and Litecoin supporters, with Kusama mocking the new branding as immature.
The controversy comes at a time when meme coins are gaining significant attention in the market, with Shiba Inu seeing positive price movement. Despite minor daily fluctuations, SHIB has shown a 33% gain over the past month, bolstered by rising optimism from ecosystem developments, token burns, and bullish market sentiment. In contrast, Litecoin's price remains relatively stagnant, reflecting a more cautious sentiment as the coin's shift to a meme coin identity raises questions within the broader crypto landscape. Despite the playful rivalry, both coins remain significant players in the market, with Shiba Inu continuing to maintain a strong presence.
Ecosystem News
By 2025, the presence of AI agents in Web3 ecosystems is projected to surge, exceeding 1 million entities engaging in decentralized activities like staking and onchain trading. These "agentic AIs," capable of executing autonomous decisions, are already reshaping the digital economy by building Web3 applications, managing liquidity pools, and even launching tokens. Industry leaders like J.D. Seraphine and Michael Casey foresee significant advancements but acknowledge challenges like regulatory pressures and technical limitations. Decentralized systems are emphasized as essential to avoid risks posed by centralized AI models.
Early use cases such as cryptocurrency staking are gaining traction, with AI agents autonomously managing blockchain networks and generating notable returns. For instance, projects like ai16z's Eliza have demonstrated the potential for onchain liquidity management, achieving annualized returns exceeding 60%. However, decentralized AI still lags behind centralized models like OpenAI in computational power. Success in scaling decentralized AI hinges on safeguarding user privacy, ensuring quality training data, and navigating evolving regulatory landscapes. As AI transforms Web3, investors are advised to recognize the paradigm shift and position themselves accordingly.
The memecoin market, which experienced a significant surge in early November, has since lost momentum, shedding 16% of its value since mid-November. Despite this downturn, Dogecoin (DOGE) and PEPE (PEPE) emerged as the best-performing memecoins among the top four in the sector. The market cap of the memecoin sector had jumped from $55 billion to $116 billion between November 4 and 14, but has since receded to $100 billion. This decline reflects a broader trend where the memecoin market, once dominant, has struggled to maintain the same level of social engagement and interest, particularly as altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) have seen their own fluctuations.
Although Dogecoin reached its highest social dominance in 18 months on November 13, this has since tapered off, signaling waning public interest. Meanwhile, the altcoin market has experienced a 22% growth since mid-November, outperforming the memecoins. This shift suggests that top altcoins remain the more stable investment options, while the memecoin market, despite having its strong moments, is facing challenges in retaining its initial popularity. The resilience of Dogecoin and PEPE amidst this volatility highlights their continuing appeal to investors, even as the sector as a whole faces a correction.
PEPE, the popular memecoin, has experienced a significant recovery after a tough week marked by a 20% price drop. The recent 10% price hike has been supported by a rise in trading volume, signaling that the bull run may have legs. Key metrics, such as rising buying pressure and an uptick in the supply outside of exchanges, suggest increasing confidence among traders. The fear and greed index being in the āextreme fearā phase also signals a higher potential for a rebound. Despite this, PEPEās recovery is not without its risks, as selling pressure from whales and bearish indicators on the MACD point to a potential reversal.
While PEPE has seen short-term gains, the memecoin's future remains uncertain. The marketās overall sentiment, driven by extreme fear and a declining supply in top addresses, is still fragile. The RSI is showing positive signs, which could help maintain the momentum, but the marketās volatility and the bearish MACD present challenges. As PEPEās road to recovery continues, much will depend on whether buying pressure can outlast the selling from whales and the broader market conditions.