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- Memecoin Journal - Week 50 2024
Memecoin Journal - Week 50 2024
Weekly update on all things Memecoins
TL;DR
DOGE is down
SHIB is down
Shiba Inu’s Bullish Trend Meets Order Imbalance: A Buy Opportunity?
Dogeson, Shiro Neko and Orbit Among Saturday’s Largest Gainers
Chill Guy Meme Coin Faces Major Setback Amid IP Rights Violation
Shiba Inu Exec Shares Vital Updates on SHIFU Coin Airdrop, Here’s All
Dogecoin Price Outlook: Can $0.50 Be Reached?
FLOKI Nears Breakout: A Critical Moment for Bullish Momentum
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Dogecoin Price
Crypto is up this week, with DOGE being down 12.59% and SHIB down 13.90%:
Dogecoin (DOGE) Weekly Analysis
Dogecoin exhibited notable activity this week, struggling to stay above the $0.4 price level and slipping by 2.04% to $0.3973. Whale activity provided a significant boost, with large transactions jumping 41.12% in 24 hours, resulting in 60.9 billion DOGE shuffled. Historically, such intense whale activity often precedes price rallies, sparking speculation of a potential upward trend. However, the daily trading volume of $3.47 billion indicates a thinning market, reflecting caution among investors. DOGE’s large transaction count of over 9,400 highlights growing adoption, yet price recovery remains uncertain in the short term.
Looking forward, Dogecoin's all-time high (ATH) of $0.7376 remains its primary goal, with optimistic projections targeting the $1 mark in the long term. The DOGE Army anticipates Elon Musk’s influence and ongoing developments by the Dogecoin Foundation to propel adoption. Current metrics show a circulating supply of 147.1 billion DOGE, with a live market cap of $58.58 billion. However, with bearish sentiments and regulatory uncertainties clouding the crypto space, Dogecoin’s future trajectory hinges on broader market trends and sustained community engagement.
Market Outlook
Dogecoin's price struggles below $0.4 amid thinning trading volumes and strong whale activity, signaling both challenges and opportunities for price recovery. The DOGE community maintains bullish long-term expectations, banking on network development and influencer-driven momentum.
Expected Trading Ranges
Support: $0.35
Resistance: $0.42
is inevitable
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
3:53 PM • Nov 25, 2024
Financial News
A cryptocurrency trader has captured headlines after turning a modest $27 investment into an astonishing $52 million through the Pepe (PEPE) memecoin. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain revealed that this extraordinary 1,900,000x return was achieved when a dormant wallet, inactive for 600 days, transferred 2.1 trillion PEPE tokens to a new address. Despite its lack of intrinsic utility, Pepe continues to generate immense wealth for investors, mirroring a similar success in May when another trader transformed $3,000 into $46 million. Pepe's year-to-date rally of 1,600% has secured its place as the second-best-performing cryptocurrency of 2024, further cementing its influence in the memecoin space.
The rise of memecoins like Pepe underscores a growing generational shift in investment behavior. Described as "punk rock for disillusioned young investors," memecoins offer opportunities for massive, albeit volatile, returns. Analysts speculate that Pepe may become the Dogecoin of the current bull cycle, reflecting broader frustration with traditional financial systems. However, this rapid success comes with significant risks, as highlighted by the $1.7 billion crypto market liquidation on Dec. 10, which saw memecoins among the worst-performing assets. While Pepe's momentum suggests potential for further growth, traders must tread carefully in this unpredictable landscape.
Bitwise has projected 2025 as a groundbreaking year for crypto IPOs, with at least five major companies, including Kraken and Circle, expected to go public. Other anticipated IPOs include Anchorage Digital, Chainalysis, and Figure, reflecting the increasing institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The report also predicts Coinbase shares doubling to $700, securing its place in the S&P 500 as the most valuable brokerage platform. This momentum aligns with broader market shifts, such as the growing tokenization of real-world assets, anticipated to expand from $13 billion to $50 billion. Additionally, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, already surpassing $33 billion in 2024, are expected to grow further as major institutions and wealth managers gain access to these products.
Bitwise's forecast extends to price surges for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $500,000 if the U.S. adopts a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Ethereum could hit $7,000, driven by increased Layer 2 activity and stablecoin growth, while Solana might see a 250% rise to $750 with the launch of “serious” projects. Meanwhile, AI is poised to drive another memecoin mania, as seen in the rapid rise of AI-influenced tokens like GOAT. Bitwise also anticipates U.S. stablecoin legislation and relaxed crypto guidance for 401(k) plans, further accelerating market adoption and creating new investment pathways.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has entered a volatile phase, with whales driving significant price movements. Despite initial bullish momentum from the "Trump pump" during election week, DOGE faced resistance at $0.50, failing to sustain its upward trajectory. This resistance led to a sharp pullback, with the price now hovering around $0.40. Whales appear to be leveraging this dip, accumulating an additional 160 million tokens. Analysts suspect a textbook manipulation strategy, where whales buy at the bottom and sell at the top for profit, creating a "tug-of-war" that leaves retail investors wary.
The broader market volatility further complicates DOGE's outlook. Open Interest (OI) in DOGE’s perpetual market has dropped 29% in under a week, from $4.45 billion to $3.16 billion, signaling reduced confidence among traders. While the $0.40 level could present a buying opportunity supported by whale activity, the ongoing manipulation poses significant risks. For DOGE to regain bullish momentum, it must break the $0.50 resistance. Until then, retail and institutional investors are advised to exercise caution, as the current pattern may repeat.
A dormant Pepe (PEPE) whale transferred 2.1 trillion tokens worth $52 million after 600 days of inactivity, raising questions about its market impact. While the transaction may indicate either a sell-off or a shift to cold storage for security, the uncertainty has added to the bearish pressure on PEPE. Following a brief rally to $0.00002423, marking a 3.78% increase, the memecoin’s price retraced amid declining inflows from large holders, which dropped from 12.78 trillion to 5.48 trillion tokens in a week. This signals waning market confidence among whales, further reflected in a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI), now at 58, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Despite short-term bearish sentiment, PEPE shows signs of resilience in its fundamentals. The Adjusted Price-DAA Divergence remains positive, indicating improving network activity that could bolster long-term growth. Analysts suggest that PEPE may reclaim the $0.0000256 resistance if bullish momentum strengthens, although bearish forces could pull the price to $0.00002319. The transaction by the dormant whale underscores the delicate balance between market corrections and long-term optimism, leaving investors to weigh short-term risks against potential future gains.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently consolidating in the $0.35-$0.45 range, showing weak selling pressure that could pave the way for a rally toward $0.50 in the near future. The formation of a double bottom pattern on the price chart suggests the potential for upward movement, especially if DOGE can hold above key support levels like $0.36-$0.38. Technical indicators such as the RSI, which is hovering above neutral, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV), which remains above local highs, point to a bullish bias. However, a move beyond $0.43 would serve as an early indicator that the $0.50 resistance could be tested soon.
While the liquidation heatmap shows significant liquidity at the $0.395 and $0.425 levels, a fall below these points could signal a deeper correction for DOGE. Conversely, if the memecoin maintains its current demand zone and rises above $0.43, it could be poised for further gains. Traders will need to monitor these levels closely, as a break above $0.43 could reignite hopes of reaching $0.50, while a decline could extend the consolidation phase or even trigger a bearish trend.
Adoption News
Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing promising signs of a potential breakout, with its network activity and technical setup aligning for a possible rally. The formation of a double bottom pattern indicates solid support at $0.37, with $0.47 acting as a critical resistance level. If DOGE can break through this level, it could trigger a surge toward $0.50 or higher. Additionally, the recent spike in network activity, including a 102.4% increase in new addresses and a 111.32% rise in active wallets, indicates growing interest and adoption. These developments suggest that more participants are entering the ecosystem, further supporting a bullish outlook.
In addition to the positive chart setup, Dogecoin's transaction volume has remained robust, reinforcing the token's demand and utility. With an average of 715.85k transactions per week, the network is showing consistent engagement. The market sentiment is also favorable, as evidenced by the liquidation data, which shows a higher number of long positions being liquidated compared to shorts, signaling optimism. These factors combined—technical indicators, rising network activity, and positive market sentiment—suggest that Dogecoin could be on the verge of a breakout, potentially driving its price higher in the coming weeks.
Shiba Inu's marketing lead, Lucie, generated excitement within the SHIB community by announcing key details about the upcoming SHIFU coin airdrop. The airdrop will primarily benefit LEASH and BONE holders, as well as SHIB gamers and NFT enthusiasts. LEASH holders can earn one allocation slot for every 0.01 LEASH token held, with both staked and unstaked tokens on Ethereum and Shibarium networks qualifying. Similarly, BONE holders will receive one allocation slot per BONE token, with both staked and unstaked tokens eligible. Additionally, SHIB gamers can accumulate SHIFU points based on in-game activities, while NFT holders will receive allocation slots based on the type of NFT they own.
The announcement has sparked significant optimism within the Shiba Inu ecosystem, with SHIB's price also rising nearly 4% on the day of the reveal. The airdrop and community developments have fueled investor interest, and the coin’s burn rate has further supported the price surge by reducing the circulating supply. As the SHIFU coin airdrop approaches, the Shiba Inu community is poised to capitalize on this opportunity, with more details expected to be revealed soon.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a strong market structure on the daily timeframe. Despite some resistance around the $0.00003-$0.000037 zone, the token is showing signs of potential short-term gains. On-chain activity has been increasing, with Shibarium’s TVL reaching an all-time high and transaction milestones being hit. However, despite the overall bullish trend, buying pressure has been waning, as evidenced by a drop in the MFI (Money Flow Index) from 80 to 61 in early December. This suggests that while momentum is still positive, capital inflow is weakening, and the recent fall below $0.0000295 added a short-term bearish bias.
An order imbalance, showing fewer sell orders within 10% of the current price, presents a potential buying opportunity for SHIB traders. This imbalance suggests a short-term price bounce toward key resistance levels, particularly the $0.00003 zone. Large limit sell orders between $0.000032 and $0.000035 could make it challenging for SHIB to climb past these levels. Nonetheless, the current market dynamics imply that there could be a brief rebound before encountering resistance, providing a potential buying window for those watching the market closely.
Dogeson, Shiro Neko, and Orbit were the standout performers among cryptocurrencies on Saturday, each marking impressive gains. Dogeson, a Doge-inspired token, surged by over 109%, fueled by its playful "space-bound Doge" narrative. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, it reached a market cap of $146.6 million but remains somewhat mysterious regarding its founding team. Shiro Neko, a cat-themed token tied to play-to-earn gaming and NFTs, rose by 83%, bringing its market cap to approximately $441 million. Built on the Shiba Inu ecosystem's Shibarium, it emphasizes community engagement and immersive gaming experiences, including an animated series.
Orbit, another notable gainer, saw a 77.6% increase, boosting its market cap to around $44 million. Orbit is a space-themed coin built on the Blast Chain, facilitating governance and staking rewards within its ecosystem. The protocol has garnered attention with a TVL of over $6.4 million and a fixed total supply of 100 million tokens. Each of these projects highlights the growing diversity within the crypto market, combining humor, gaming, and space themes to attract investors and users alike.
The Chill Guy meme coin experienced a dramatic 45% drop in value within just 30 minutes following revelations that it did not have intellectual property (IP) rights to the original Chill Guy meme. The coin’s creator, Philip Bankss, publicly rejected the project, stating that he never authorized the use of his meme and accused hackers of impersonating him to grant licensing rights on his behalf. This led to a wave of sell-offs, with the token’s price falling from $0.4793 to as low as $0.2637, marking a 15% drop in its market cap. Despite initially surging in popularity, especially after being listed on Binance, the meme coin's lack of proper licensing has undermined investor confidence.
Launched in November 2024, the Chill Guy meme coin capitalized on the viral success of the "Just A Chill Guy" meme, which gained widespread attention on social media, particularly among Gen Z audiences. However, the controversy over IP rights has highlighted the risks inherent in the volatile meme coin market. These coins often experience erratic price movements driven by hype and social media trends, with little to no fundamental value or utility. The situation underscores the speculative nature of meme coins and their potential to create mixed perceptions of the cryptocurrency market.
Ecosystem News
In a bid to restore trust in the crypto world, Castello Coin has fused art and emotion through two captivating initiatives: the Castello Cube and Simon, a symbolic canine mayor. The Castello Cube, an 186-kilogram block of 24-karat gold, serves as a monumental "golden blockchain block," symbolizing transparency and connection. Exhibited in New York's Central Park in 2022 and later showcased on the Burj Al Arab's helipad in 2024 with a record-breaking drone show, the cube's presence highlights crypto's potential for innovation and inclusivity. Despite turbulent events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and crypto scandals, the project attracted €16 million in funding, with 99% of backers being newcomers from traditional industries.
Building on the cube’s success, Castello launched Simon, a memecoin inspired by a Basset-Cattle dog symbolically elected as New York City's canine mayor. Simon aims to counter skepticism in the memecoin market by embodying trust and transparency. With a grand inauguration set for early 2025 and plans to feature prominently in Castello's AI-driven platform and global initiatives, Simon represents a heartfelt connection to crypto’s mission. Together, the Cube and Simon projects underscore a new vision for the financial future—one rooted in trust, imagination, and emotional resonance.
For the second consecutive month, Solana-native decentralized exchange (DEX) Raydium outperformed Uniswap in monthly trading volumes. In November, Raydium exceeded Uniswap's volume by an impressive 30%, or roughly $30 billion, following a narrower 10% lead in October, according to Messari's Dec. 10 report. Raydium's dominance stems from its strong foothold in the Solana ecosystem, where it commands over 60% of daily DEX trading activity. A significant portion of this volume—65% in November—was driven by memecoin trading, fueled by platforms like Pump.fun, a major player in minting and trading liquidity for memecoins on Solana.
Despite its Solana exclusivity, Raydium has outpaced Uniswap, which operates across 18 blockchain networks. Solana's rapid growth, including a fivefold increase in total value locked (TVL) in 2024, has been attributed to its technical strengths, such as high throughput and low transaction costs, providing a faster and cheaper DeFi experience. This surge has established Solana as a hub for memecoin trading and broader decentralized finance activity, even as Ethereum maintains a commanding lead with over $70 billion in TVL. Meanwhile, Uniswap has been bolstering its position with developments like the launch of its layer-2 network, Unichain.
Memecoins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Dogwifhat (WIF), experienced steep declines on Dec. 10, erasing a significant portion of gains from the recent Donald Trump-fueled rally. The memecoin sector's market capitalization dropped 21% in 24 hours, hitting a three-week low of $119.6 billion. DOGE, the largest memecoin, fell 5.6%, while SHIB saw a 10.4% decline. Meanwhile, daily trading volumes surged, signaling intense selling pressure. Pepe (PEPE) was the only top-cap memecoin to post gains, climbing 1.7% during the sell-off.
The crash coincided with a $1.7 billion liquidation event across the broader crypto market, the largest since 2021. Memecoins faced the brunt, with DOGE losing $72.6 million in long positions and SHIB shedding $22.35 million. Open interest (OI) for memecoins also dropped sharply, with DOGE seeing a 20% decline in OI and WIF recording a 27% drop. The bearish momentum reflects heightened risk aversion as leveraged traders unwound their positions. This liquidation event marked a significant reset in the crypto market, with altcoins and memecoins disproportionately affected compared to BTC and ETH futures.
