Memecoin Journal - Week 5 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

February 04, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • Trump Memecoins Boost Solana's Pump.fun

  • Dogecoin Poised for Double Bull Runs, Eyes $3 Target

  • Bitwise Files for Dogecoin ETF

  • Tuttle Capital Files Leveraged Crypto ETFs

  • Balchunas Confirms Bonk 2x ETF Possibility

  • Breaking Bad Actor's X Account Hacked for Memecoin Scam

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 5.5% and SHIB down 7.0%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin’s price action this week has been marked by volatility, with the memecoin experiencing a correction after closing below its ascending channel pattern on January 28.

While the drop tested lower support levels, bearish pressure has struggled to push DOGE significantly lower, keeping traders on edge. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.27 remains a key downside target if sellers regain control.

However, buyers are attempting to reclaim lost ground, with resistance forming at the moving averages. A successful break above could negate the recent decline and open the door to a rally toward $0.40.

Despite the correction, analysts remain optimistic about DOGE’s long-term outlook. Crypto expert Trader Tardigrade highlights a bullish Gaussian Channel pattern, which historically precedes major price surges. Based on this setup, DOGE could be on the verge of two consecutive rallies, potentially reaching as high as $3.

The first wave of this uptrend appears to be underway, reinforcing expectations for continued growth. A bullish MACD crossover on the 4-hour chart further supports a shift in momentum, with DOGE exiting bearish territory and eyeing key resistance levels.

Market sentiment is also influenced by institutional developments. Bitwise officially filed with the SEC for a spot Dogecoin ETF, following its earlier Delaware trust registration. If approved, the ETF could introduce new liquidity and broader adoption, aligning DOGE with other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which already have spot ETFs.

Additionally, the $0.35 level is in focus, with over $766 million in short positions set for liquidation if DOGE surpasses this mark.

The broader crypto market remains in a corrective phase, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also seeing declines. However, Dogecoin’s technical indicators and growing institutional interest suggest strong upside potential if key resistance levels are breached in the coming sessions.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to face significant challenges in the market as it grapples with a correction that has seen its price decline over the past week. Despite a brief 2.7% rebound earlier in the week, SHIB’s price remains under pressure, hovering around $0.000018.

This comes after the cryptocurrency experienced a 9.5% drop over the last seven days, largely driven by the broader market's digesting of the US Federal Reserve's latest decision. While the rebound above $0.000018 marked a brief respite, it was not supported by strong buying volume, signaling potential weakness in the recovery.

On-chain data further highlights concerns for SHIB, as whale activity shows signs of stagnation. Large transactions, those valued over $100,000, plummeted by 61% in just 24 hours, signaling a retreat in investor confidence.

The number of such transactions dropped from 353 to 136, while the total volume of SHIB in these high-value trades fell 55%. This lack of whale participation has led to declines in SHIB’s price, with it struggling to hold support at $0.000020 and now sitting near the next key support at $0.000018.

If this downtrend continues without renewed whale interest or strong buy orders, SHIB could test lower levels.

Technical indicators also present a bearish outlook. A developing death cross, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 100-day moving average, suggests further downside potential. Additionally, the Parabolic SAR remains above the price action, indicating resistance.

With weak bullish momentum and the overall market sentiment teetering on uncertainty, analysts warn that Shiba Inu may face continued pressure unless significant market shifts occur, particularly in whale activity and broader liquidity flows.

Financial News

Solana's Pump.fun platform set a new weekly trading volume record of $3.3 billion, driven by the launch of Trump-themed memecoins. On January 23, trading soared to over $544 million in a single day, surpassing previous records. Trump's TRUMP and MELANIA tokens triggered a wave of knockoff tokens, with at least 61 fraudulent coins emerging.

Memecoin speculation also led to dramatic price swings, as seen with the "Barron Trump" token. Despite the surge in volume, Pump.fun faces legal scrutiny over investor losses and controversial promotional tactics, with some questioning the platform’s sustainability.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing signs of a dual bull run, with a promising chart pattern suggesting consecutive rallies. Crypto expert Trader Tardigrade forecasts that DOGE could reach new all-time highs, driven by a Gaussian Channel formation indicating strong upward momentum.

Following a market dip, DOGE is recovering, with a potential surge toward $3 by the end of the second bull run. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also signals bullish momentum. Key resistance levels, such as the $0.35 mark, are crucial, as liquidation of short positions could further fuel DOGE’s rise.

A Pump.fun user created 18,000 tokens, earning $3.8 million in profits, according to Coinbase’s Conor Grogan. The wallet, the largest deployer on the platform, maintains a 55.57% win rate on $6.8 million in trades. While Grogan suspects manual involvement, some believe it’s a “rug farm,” referencing similar schemes on Base that drained $600,000 from investors.

Scammers allegedly inflate liquidity to appear legitimate before swiftly removing funds. Critics argue that rug pulls have become normalized, while hackers face legal action for comparable exploits. If Pump.fun launches a token, Grogan estimates the wallet could make eight figures from an airdrop.

Solana has captured over 50% of decentralized exchange (DEX) volume in the past five weeks, with OKX crediting its fast transactions, low fees, and developer-friendly tools. At its peak, Solana briefly held an 89.7% DEX market share, fueled by Pump.fun’s memecoin trading frenzy. Jupiter, Solana’s leading DEX, accounts for 70% of this volume.

Despite Ethereum maintaining dominance in liquidity and real-world asset tokenization, OKX suggests Solana’s high-volume, low-TVL model could signal long-term resilience. However, Ethereum’s Layer 2 networks are evolving to compete on transaction speed and fees, potentially challenging Solana’s growing market share.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has lost $1.3 million in market value this month, with whales offloading 30 trillion tokens in ten days. However, a single whale recently accumulated 257.5 billion SHIB, raising hopes for a turnaround. Despite the memecoin trading 13% below its New Year price, a 6% recovery hints at a possible rally, reminiscent of its election-period surge.

Whale wallets now hold 40 trillion SHIB, though buying volume remains low at $600 million—far below December’s $7.6 billion. If market sentiment shifts, SHIB could see a 58% rally, but low retail participation suggests potential manipulation.

Adoption News

Bitwise has filed with the SEC to launch a spot Dogecoin ETF, marking an official step after registering a Dogecoin trust in Delaware. The proposed ETF will track Dogecoin’s price movements, and Coinbase Custody will act as the custodian.

This filing is part of a broader trend of crypto memecoin ETFs, with other firms like Osprey Funds and Tuttle Capital also pushing similar products. Bitwise, already offering Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, has expanded its efforts to include Solana and XRP ETFs. The Dogecoin ETF's approval process will depend on further filings with the SEC.

Donald Trump's launch of the TRUMP memecoin on January 18 sparked a surge in Google searches for "crypto," reaching its highest level since 2021. This increase in search interest was accompanied by a rise in searches for terms like "memecoin," "buy crypto," and "Solana."

The TRUMP and Melania Trump’s MELANIA tokens attracted significant attention but faced sharp declines post-launch. The event also boosted crypto app downloads, with platforms like Crypto.com and Coinbase leading the charts. Despite the initial surge, the TRUMP token’s price dropped by over 60%, raising concerns about its stability and risks.

Tuttle Capital has filed for 10 leveraged crypto ETFs, including funds for memecoins like Trump's TRUMP and Melania's MELANIA tokens. Analysts believe the filings test the boundaries of crypto-friendly regulation under the Trump administration. The proposed ETFs are leveraged two-to-one, a move considered unusual for assets without standard ETFs.

Matthew Tuttle confirmed the filings, anticipating scrutiny during the approval process. The SEC's stance on such products could impact future crypto ETF development. Tuttle's filing comes amid growing interest in memecoin-related ETFs, with more firms entering the market and recent approvals for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

Elon Musk’s X Wallet has partnered with Visa, enabling instant funding and peer-to-peer transactions. X CEO Linda Yaccarino confirmed users can securely transfer funds between their X Wallet and bank accounts using Visa Direct. This move strengthens X’s ambition to become a financial powerhouse, sparking speculation about future crypto integration.

With Musk’s ties to President Donald Trump and his role in federal blockchain initiatives, analysts anticipate potential support for Bitcoin and Dogecoin. The partnership marks a significant step toward mainstream digital payments, with the crypto community eagerly watching for further developments.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently compared the economics of memecoins to the art market, emphasizing that both rely on narrative creation for valuation. He believes the memecoin market will mature over the next five years despite short-term setbacks like scams.

Ju's comparison highlighted that if memecoins are considered scams, the art market would also face similar scrutiny. As memecoins continue to grow, with Dogecoin’s market cap surpassing $50 billion, new tokens like the Trump memecoin (TRUMP) have further fueled debate over their legitimacy and regulatory implications.

Ecosystem News

Dean Norris, known for his role as Hank Schrader in Breaking Bad, had his X account hacked to promote a fake memecoin, DEAN, which briefly reached a market cap of $8.43 million before crashing. Norris, who posted a video claiming he was hacked, condemned the scam and attacked Reddit users for blaming him.

The hackers used a deepfake video to promote the coin, which collapsed by over 96%. This is the second hack involving Norris's account, with a previous incident tied to another cryptocurrency scheme. Norris clarified he does not use Telegram and was unaware of the hack.

A Solana-based token named after the Chinese AI app DeepSeek briefly hit a $48 million market cap on January 27, driven by $150 million in trading volume. Despite the hype surrounding the app, DeepSeek denied any involvement with cryptocurrency, warning users about potential scams.

The token's market value quickly dropped to $30 million, with over 22,000 wallets holding the asset. A second fake token capitalized on the DeepSeek craze, reaching a $13 million market cap before also declining. The app's success fueled discussions about challenges to US dominance in AI and its impact on financial markets.

Eric Balchunas, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, affirmed that the possibility of a Bonk 2x ETF remains strong despite recent regulatory pushbacks. He highlighted that although Tuttle Capital withdrew its filings for 2x leveraged Melania and Trump ETFs, the Rex filings for Trump and Dogecoin ETFs remain active.

This indicates that the SEC may not outright reject meme coin ETFs, keeping the path open for the Bonk 2x ETF. Tuttle Capital's recent filing for 10 crypto ETFs, including a Bonk ETF, could lead to the first-ever leveraged Bonk ETF if approved.

A Solana-based meme coin, FAFO Barron, surged over 250% after Donald Trump posted a picture referencing it, but quickly dropped 28%. Created on Pump.fun and named after his youngest son, the token briefly hit a $148K market cap.

Meanwhile, hackers compromised Visa’s official Facebook page, using it to promote a fraudulent Solana-based token ($VISA), which spiked before collapsing in a rug-pull scam. Solana remains a hotbed for meme coin scams, with Pump.fun facing legal action for alleged investor exploitation, as reports show only 0.4% of its users profited significantly.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reportedly saving the U.S. federal government $1 billion daily, primarily through cutting unnecessary hires, eliminating DEI programs, and stopping improper foreign payments. This initiative aligns with President Trump's Executive Orders aimed at reducing government spending.

While DOGE’s efforts have already made significant progress, the department is now targeting $3 billion in daily savings. Musk, a strong advocate for reducing government inefficiencies, aims to streamline federal agencies, cut redundant roles, and reduce foreign aid. He remains focused on combating unsustainable government spending and rising national debt.

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