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- Memecoin Journal - Week 49 2024
Memecoin Journal - Week 49 2024
Weekly update on all things Memecoins
TL;DR
DOGE is down
SHIB is down
Pepe Memecoin Hits All-Time High, Surpasses Uniswap in Market Cap
BONK Price Prediction: A Bullish Pattern Amidst Market Challenges
Meme Coins Rally as GameStop Trader Keith Gill Returns to X
HAWK Launch Sparks Legal Concerns Amid Allegations of Misconduct
Coffeezilla Challenges Misleading Headlines About Hawk Tuah Memecoin
FCA Blocks Pump.fun, Citing Unauthorized Operations in the UK
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Dogecoin Price
Crypto is up this week, with DOGE being down 1.93% and SHIB down 8.77%:
Dogecoin (DOGE) Weekly Update
Dogecoin faced a volatile week, with its price standing at $0.4064, reflecting an 8.92% drop over the last 24 hours. Despite this, market sentiment remains mixed, as bullish momentum earlier in the week attempted to push DOGE above $0.48 on December 8, only to encounter resistance from sellers. The live market capitalization is $59.78 billion, supported by a circulating supply of 147.10 billion DOGE and a maximum cap of 147.14 billion DOGE. Trading volumes remain strong, with a 24-hour volume of $12.32 billion indicating persistent investor interest.
DOGE’s price action is influenced by broader market trends and technical indicators. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.41) and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that bulls are still attempting to maintain control, positioning the path of least resistance toward the upside. However, near-term downward pressure has tempered optimism, as the price dipped below key levels after a failed breakout attempt.
DOGE Market Analysis
Dogecoin has been trading within a rising channel, and a successful push above $0.48 could signal a rally to $0.60, as per recent technical patterns. The 20-day EMA's bullish slope offers support to the price action, but failure to sustain these levels could lead to a downward acceleration, pulling DOGE to as low as $0.33.
On a short-term outlook, support remains critical at $0.41, with resistance firmly set at $0.48. A break below the channel's support line could trigger selling pressure, while sustained bullish momentum could position Dogecoin for higher highs.
Expected Trading Ranges
Support: $0.41
Resistance: $0.48
Market Outlook
Dogecoin continues to attract significant trading activity, showcasing its relevance in the cryptocurrency space. While current bearish sentiment has momentarily dampened enthusiasm, strong trading volume and a bullish technical setup indicate potential for recovery. Investors should closely watch key support and resistance levels, as any breakout or breakdown could determine DOGE’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
is inevitable
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
3:53 PM • Nov 25, 2024
Financial News
Pepe, the frog-themed memecoin, has achieved a significant milestone by overtaking Uniswap (UNI) in market capitalization. As of December 7, Pepe boasts a market cap of over $11 billion, compared to UNI’s $10.6 billion, marking an all-time high for the token. This surge represents an 18x growth from its market cap of $591 million at the beginning of 2024. In the past week alone, Pepe has climbed 26%, with a 16.8% gain in the last 24 hours. Its rise reflects growing interest from memecoin traders and market speculators, bolstered by Binance.US's recent decision to list the token on December 5.
Since its launch in 2023, Pepe has become a formidable competitor in the memecoin space, gaining over 7,000% since its inception. After months of price consolidation, the token began a historic rally in November, pushing past previous highs and securing its position as one of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Despite having "no intrinsic value," Pepe has captured the attention of investors drawn to the speculative nature of memecoins, positioning it as a major player in the ongoing memecoin narrative.
BONK, the second-largest memecoin on the Solana blockchain, has shown promising signs of recovery despite recent market downtrends. Following a 4% drop in price and a 40% decrease in trading volumes, BONK formed a double-bottom pattern on its one-day chart—a classic signal of a bullish reversal. This pattern, with resistance at $0.000046, suggests that if BONK breaks through this level, it could ignite a rally surpassing its November 2024 all-time high (ATH) of $0.0000623. Technical indicators like the Money Flow Index (MFI), which indicates high buying pressure and rising capital inflows, reinforce the possibility of an uptrend. However, fading momentum in derivative markets highlights the need for renewed speculative activity to sustain these gains.
In derivatives trading, BONK’s open interest has dropped significantly, from $64 million to $26 million over the past three weeks, reflecting reduced market participation. The memecoin faces a critical juncture: either breach its current resistance to rally past its ATH or fall below its support level at $0.000040, invalidating the bullish trend. Despite these challenges, BONK remains a contender to regain its position as Solana’s top memecoin, potentially surpassing Dogwifhat (WIF) in market cap if it can sustain a strong rally into 2025.
Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a 5% price drop in the last 24 hours, trading at $0.443 with a market capitalization of over $65.3 billion. Despite this, the decline could signify a bullish setup, as DOGE recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential for an uptrend. This price correction may be testing the upper trendline support of the pattern, with a successful test paving the way for a fresh rally. Key metrics such as the Fear and Greed Index, currently at 37%, suggest a possible bullish reversal, though bearish sentiment persists with a declining long-short ratio and stagnant velocity.
To initiate a sustained rally, DOGE must surpass the $0.46 resistance level, potentially propelling it toward its all-time high. However, bearish factors like high open interest and dominant short positions hint at continued price pressure. An altcoin season could bolster DOGE’s chances of reaching a new peak, though failure to maintain current support might result in a decline to $0.36. The coming weeks will be pivotal for the memecoin’s trajectory.
POPCAT, now the 8th largest memecoin by market cap, has captured attention with its volatile price swings. After reaching an all-time high of $2.08 during an election rally, the token has since retraced to $1.50, grappling with heavy profit-taking. Despite being the only top-10 memecoin in the red for the past 30 days, POPCAT outperformed rivals with a 13% recovery in the last week. A neutral RSI suggests potential momentum for a rebound, but the token must solidify the $1.50 level as support to avoid further declines. Spot trader activity, withdrawing $2 million worth of POPCAT at its current price, hints at market sentiment identifying a potential bottom, though sustained accumulation is necessary for a push toward $2.
However, POPCAT’s speculative nature leaves it vulnerable. Whale addresses holding 100K+ tokens have reduced their positions, signaling diminished confidence from key players. While smaller investors remain committed, the lack of strong fundamentals hinders the memecoin’s long-term prospects. Without a stabilizing force to mitigate volatility, achieving another all-time high could prove challenging, despite broader market conditions. For now, POPCAT remains a high-risk, high-reward asset, relying heavily on speculative interest.
As of Monday, December 9, 2024, the memecoin sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant price increases observed across major tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE), Pepe (PEPE), and Dogwifhat (WIF). This rally is attributed to a shift in investor and institutional focus from top cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to memecoins, alongside heightened activity from whale investors. Recent analysis by Santiment highlights that whales are accumulating memecoins, fostering bullish momentum. Notably, DOGE is testing the neckline of an ascending triangle pattern, with the potential to rise 18% to $0.58 if it maintains support above $0.45. Similarly, PEPE and WIF are testing breakout levels, poised for gains of up to 45% and 25%, respectively, if they sustain above critical thresholds.
The optimistic market sentiment around memecoins suggests further potential for upward movement, provided whales maintain their interest and retail investors begin to participate. However, historical trends indicate that as retail attention grows, whales often sell off, which could lead to corrections. For now, the memecoin rally showcases resilience, outshining the broader crypto market and underscoring the speculative appeal of these assets.
Adoption News
Pump.Fun, a Solana-based memecoin launchpad, has updated its terms of service to block access for UK users in response to a warning from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The regulator flagged the platform for potentially offering unauthorized financial products, prompting Pump.Fun to comply by restricting its services. The FCA’s stringent requirements, which mandate crypto firms to register before operating in the UK, have seen only 47 out of 347 applicants gain approval since 2020. This move places Pump.Fun among other platforms adjusting operations to meet evolving regulatory expectations, though critics argue such changes often come too late to address deeper issues of governance.
The platform, responsible for 62% of decentralized exchange transactions on Solana, has faced mounting scrutiny for its rapid token issuance capabilities, which have been linked to scams and unregulated promotions. Earlier controversies, including allegations of misuse in its live-streaming feature, led to its discontinuation and further damaged Pump.Fun's reputation. Despite being a key player in the memecoin boom, its challenges highlight the ongoing tension between decentralized innovation and the push for regulatory compliance, underscoring the precarious position of crypto platforms navigating global regulations.
Meme coins like GME, AMC, ROAR, and KITTY experienced significant surges following the return of Keith Gill, famously known as "Roaring Kitty," to X after a three-month hiatus. GME, a Solana-based meme coin, spiked by over 70%, with its trading volume skyrocketing by 203% to $51.23 million. A similar Ethereum-based GME coin rose by 51%, hitting an all-time high before retracing 21%. AMC, inspired by the AMC Entertainment chain, rallied over 50%, while coins linked to Gill’s persona, such as ROAR and KITTY, posted gains of over 45%. Although Gill’s post on X did not explicitly mention these tokens, his influence from the 2021 GameStop short squeeze frenzy continues to ripple through the crypto and stock markets.
Despite the excitement, these gains have historically been fleeting. Similar rallies triggered by Gill’s posts in May and September quickly reversed as the hype subsided, often within days. Outside of crypto, Gill’s return also drove traditional markets, with GameStop (GME) shares jumping 16% and AMC Entertainment stocks climbing 12%. This surge coincides with what analysts identify as an "altcoin season," as indicated by the Altcoin Season Index hitting a record high of 87. However, caution is advised as these volatile rallies often lack sustainability, reflecting the speculative nature of meme assets.
Enron Corporation has announced its relaunch, focusing on addressing global energy challenges through renewable energy investments and advanced technology. The company revealed plans for a potential crypto token launch, emphasizing sustainable energy solutions, affordability, and climate resilience. In its press release, Enron outlined its commitment to ethical practices, transparency, and leveraging decentralized technology, which could include blockchain innovations like peer-to-peer energy trading and grid optimization. Acknowledging its troubled past, the company aims to rebuild trust by driving innovation in energy infrastructure and contributing to the global transition to renewables.
While Enron teased a future token, unofficial Enron-themed memecoins have already emerged, with one reaching a market cap of $2 million. Despite this enthusiasm, the company clarified that no official token has been launched. Observers view Enron's interest in decentralization as a potential game-changer for integrating blockchain into the energy sector. As the company works to rebrand itself, its initiatives could align with the growing intersection of renewable energy and decentralized technology, opening doors for innovation in both industries.
The recent launch of influencer Haliey Welch’s Hawk Tuah (HAWK) memecoin has drawn intense scrutiny after its value plummeted by 91% within hours, amid allegations of insider trading and market manipulation. While Welch has publicly denied any wrongdoing, legal experts suggest that potential charges could arise if U.S. authorities, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or Department of Justice (DOJ), decide to investigate. Crypto lawyers have highlighted issues such as undisclosed token allocations and suspicious transactions, which could lead to accusations of securities fraud, market manipulation, or even wire fraud. The SEC’s ongoing treatment of crypto assets as de facto securities raises additional challenges, as Welch’s team may face penalties if HAWK is classified as a security under the Howey test.
Furthermore, analysis of blockchain data revealed over 80 wallet addresses profiting significantly without purchasing HAWK, fueling accusations of insider knowledge. Legal specialists warn that misrepresentation or misleading marketing could escalate penalties if proven. Welch's denial of insider trading and her efforts to mitigate sniping through high launch fees did little to quell skepticism, with evidence of undisclosed token allocations undermining her claims. Experts emphasize the legal ambiguity surrounding memecoins and call attention to the broader risks of unregulated crypto launches, which often lead to significant financial losses for everyday investors.
Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) journey toward the coveted 1-cent mark has captured attention, but analysts emphasize that achieving this milestone depends on two critical conditions. First, SHIB’s whale-dominated supply chain presents a challenge, as over 580 trillion tokens are concentrated in a few wallets, giving whales outsized influence over its price. While recent whale activity, sparked by the so-called "Trump pump," has revived interest, sustained enthusiasm among large holders is crucial for meaningful upward momentum. Second, external market dynamics, such as Bitcoin’s performance, play a pivotal role in SHIB’s fate. If Bitcoin experiences a downturn, SHIB could benefit from investors reallocating to speculative assets, including memecoins, for potential quick gains.
Internally, SHIB’s initiatives like token burns, community-driven DAO proposals, and bullish price movements indicate a promising trajectory. However, these efforts alone are insufficient to propel SHIB to 1 cent. With its price currently at $0.00003030, SHIB remains volatile and highly influenced by psychological resistance levels and whale strategies. Analysts note that unless SHIB develops a more decentralized support base and whale activity intensifies during periods of market greed, reaching the 1-cent milestone may remain out of reach for now.
Ecosystem News
YouTube investigator Coffeezilla has criticized the spread of misinformation surrounding influencer Hailey Welch's controversial launch of the Hawk Tuah (HAWK) memecoin. Following its December 5 debut, the token experienced a dramatic pump-and-dump scenario, sparking outrage and allegations of insider trading. Coffeezilla clarified that while the team behind HAWK allegedly presold tokens to advisers who sold early, claims of Welch personally profiting $50 million or orchestrating a $500 million rug pull are unsubstantiated. He emphasized the need to stick to verified facts, noting that Welch has reportedly earned $125,000, with her tokens locked for a year.
Despite calls for legal action from a U.S.-based law firm representing alleged victims, Coffeezilla noted that no lawsuits have been filed yet. He also addressed concerns about the whereabouts of presale profits and transaction fees, stating the exact amounts remain unclear. Welch, through her social media post, defended the launch, claiming efforts were made to prevent sniper activity by implementing high fees during the token's initial deployment. Coffeezilla’s intervention highlights the importance of countering sensational headlines with accurate information amid growing scrutiny of memecoin launches.
The United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has banned Pump.fun, a decentralized platform for creating memecoins on the Solana blockchain, stating it is operating without authorization. The FCA’s December 3 warning highlighted that Pump.fun might be providing unapproved financial services or products, leaving users without consumer protections like the Financial Ombudsman Service. Despite Pump.fun’s terms of service listing several prohibited countries, including Cuba, North Korea, and Syria, the UK was not explicitly barred, raising concerns about the platform's compliance. Users on Telegram reported the platform's inaccessibility within the UK, though some suggested bypassing the ban using virtual private networks (VPNs).
Launched in January 2024, Pump.fun has become popular for its low-cost and user-friendly token creation process, generating over $288 million in revenue since its inception. However, this ban reflects broader regulatory efforts in the UK to clamp down on unregistered crypto operations, adding Pump.fun to a list of over 140 unauthorized digital asset companies, including major exchanges like Huobi and KuCoin. The UK government is currently working on a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, which will address areas such as stablecoins and staking to ensure better oversight and consumer protection in the growing crypto industry.
Cult, a newly launched Ethereum-based memecoin, has made a significant debut with an initial fully diluted valuation (FDV) peaking at $845 million before stabilizing at $630 million. The token, launched on December 5 by the creators of the Milady Maker NFT collection, raised $20.5 million in pre-sale funds. Designed to drive long-term community engagement, Cult is described by its developers as "fundamentally different" and ideologically driven. Meanwhile, MOG, a cat-themed memecoin, has overtaken POPCAT to become the largest in its category, boasting a market capitalization of $1.46 billion. This highlights a trend where memecoins are increasingly seen as community-driven investment opportunities, despite their speculative nature.
Both Cult and MOG demonstrate balanced investor participation, with Cult showing significant retail interest and institutional appeal. MOG, on the other hand, reflects strong confidence across its diverse holder base, with smaller holders accounting for 76.12% of its supply and whales holding 23.88%. The growth in market engagement for these tokens underscores the increasing role of memecoins in the broader cryptocurrency market. As Cult pioneers a community-focused ecosystem and MOG solidifies its dominance in the cat-coin category, these memecoins exemplify how niche projects can generate substantial traction, provided they balance investor confidence and market accessibility.
