Memecoin Journal - Week 18 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

May 11, 2025

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TL;DR

  • DOGE is up

  • SHIB is up

  • Melania Team Dumps $1.5M Tokens

  • TRUMP whales spend $6.4M on rally

  • Nasdaq Seeks Approval to List DOGE ETF

  • PEPE Whales Pile on 9 Trillion Tokens

  • Trump's Crypto Push Faces Market Skepticism

  • SEC Delays Ruling on XRP, DOGE ETFs

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE up 0.6% and SHIB up 0.6%:

Weekly Analysis

Mass Token Failures Reveal Industry-Wide Weakness
The memecoin market is undergoing a sharp correction, with data from CoinGecko revealing an alarming trend: over half of all crypto tokens launched since 2021 have failed, and the first quarter of 2025 marked the worst period on record.

Research analyst Shaun Paul Lee reported that 1.8 million tokens died in Q1 alone, accounting for nearly a quarter of all tokens launched in the past four years.

This unprecedented die-off highlights the increasing fragility of speculative tokens in a volatile market environment.

Lee attributes this wave of collapses to broader market instability following Donald Trump's inauguration and a subsequent downturn in both crypto and equities.

He also pointed to the influence of Pump.fun, a token creation platform that launched in early 2024, for flooding the market with memecoins and low-effort projects.

“Pump.fun simplified the process of creating tokens, leading to a flood of memecoins and low-effort projects,” said Lee.

According to CoinGecko’s data, roughly 98% of Pump.fun tokens have failed to graduate to active trading outside the platform, with the best-performing week seeing only 1.67% of tokens move to open markets.

DOGE’s Price Action Signals Weak Momentum
While the broader memecoin sector is reeling, Dogecoin (DOGE) continues to draw attention after a recent 10.25% rally that brought its price to $0.193.

Despite outperforming some rivals, the rally has hit a critical resistance zone, with bulls struggling to break past the $0.20 level.

DOGE’s recent momentum appears more speculative than sustainable. “Calling for a $0.74 target feels like reaching for the stars,” she wrote, pointing to major overhead supply zones and structural weaknesses.

DOGE currently boasts a massive $26 billion market cap, but analysts caution that this valuation is driven more by supply than utility.

Its circulating supply stands at approximately 150 billion tokens, and its Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has surged to a three-month high.

Source: Glassnode

This signals a disconnect between DOGE’s market cap and its on-chain activity. At the time of reporting, new address creation was just 12,629 — a far cry from the 100,000-plus new addresses seen during DOGE’s breakout in November.

Derivatives Activity Masks Underlying Weakness
Despite a weak spot in fundamentals, Dogecoin has seen a notable spike in derivatives activity. Options volume jumped 9.11%, and open interest reached a monthly high of $1.87 billion, evoking memories of the 2021 memecoin boom.

Source: Coinglass

However, this uptick in leverage comes with risk. In the past 24 hours alone, $3.11 million worth of long positions were liquidated, underscoring the precarious nature of DOGE’s price movement.

Compounding concerns is a sharp decline in whale activity. Around 4,000 addresses holding over 10,000 DOGE have exited their positions, suggesting eroding confidence among larger holders. This reduction in whale support casts further doubt on DOGE’s ability to sustain upward momentum.

Market Sentiment Has Turned Cautious
CoinGecko founder Bobby Ong noted in a separate March 6 report that investor enthusiasm for memecoins has cooled significantly, especially following the poor performance of the highly anticipated Libra (LIBRA) token.

While January saw a temporary surge in memecoin trading after the launch of Trump’s own token, this excitement quickly faded as geopolitical tensions and Trump’s tariff threats triggered wider market volatility.

Overall, the combination of rampant token failures, weak structural support for Dogecoin, and an overextended derivatives market paints a cautious picture for the memecoin industry.

While DOGE retains its high-risk, high-reward appeal, analysts agree that any bullish targets — including the speculative $0.74 — will remain out of reach unless market fundamentals improve and speculative excesses are brought under control.

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Financial News

The team behind the Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) token sold over $1.5 million worth of tokens within three days, employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy flagged by Lookonchain. Despite the aggressive selling, MELANIA posted a 21% weekly gain but is still down 96% from its January high of $13.70.

Meanwhile, a new whale wallet opened a $1.33 million short position against the TRUMP token at $14.70. Memecoins remained the second-most dominant narrative in Q1 2025, but Pump.fun usage halved, indicating waning retail interest and suggesting the memecoin cycle may be entering a cooling phase.

TRUMP whales spend $6.4M on rally

Whales have resumed accumulation of the TRUMP token, injecting $6.4 million following news of an exclusive dinner involving Donald Trump. One whale reentered with a $5.2 million buy after previously selling, while another rotated $1.22 million from FARTCOIN into TRUMP.

Despite last week’s 79% surge, recent price action is muted at a 1.57% gain. Derivatives data reveals a balanced liquidation between longs and shorts, indicating indecision. Although the OI-Weighted Funding Rate signals bullish momentum, persistent negative funding rates and low trading volume suggest bearish pressure remains. TRUMP may struggle to sustain its momentum without a stronger directional shift.

Housecoin's explosive run may be cooling after a 660% surge that took the memecoin from $0.010 to $0.076. Launched in April on Solana, it gained traction as a satirical hedge against the real estate crisis. The price has since retraced to $0.060, with RSI dropping from 77 to 58.41 and a bearish MACD crossover forming.

Early buyers saw massive returns, including one trader turning $121K into $1.51M. However, the sideways movement between $0.058 and $0.065, along with narrowing Bollinger Bands, suggests consolidation and a potential short-term pullback as traders begin to lock in profits.

BONK Price Jumps 60% As Solana Memecoins Rise

BONK has seen a remarkable 60% price increase in just one week, hitting a five-month high of $0.00002167. The surge follows a broader memecoin rally, with DOGE and Shiba Inu also posting gains. BONK’s open interest has spiked 290%, indicating a surge in speculative activity.

This momentum suggests increased investor interest, with BONK breaking out of a multi-month downtrend. Technical indicators point to further price potential, with a potential move toward key resistance levels. The growing participation in BONK futures and strong social media activity signal continued bullish sentiment for the token.

Shiba Inu Burn Rate Surges 3084%

Shiba Inu's burn rate has skyrocketed by 3,084.6%, reducing its circulating supply. Despite this surge, SHIB’s short-term price action faces challenges from reduced on-chain activity, with a 40.19% drop in active addresses and a decline in transfer volume.

Exchange data shows a 126.32% drop in net deposits, but rising reserves may signal future selling pressure. SHIB is testing key support at $0.00001344, with resistance at $0.00001522. Whale activity could dictate SHIB’s next price move, either triggering a rally or intensifying downward pressure. Market momentum remains uncertain despite the burn increase.

Adoption News

Nasdaq has filed to list the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF, marking a major step toward institutionalizing the leading memecoin. The filing follows 21Shares’ initial proposal and joins a wave of over 70 pending crypto ETF applications amid a more crypto-friendly U.S. policy shift. The SEC's decision could expand DOGE access to traditional investors.

DOGE, with a $26B market cap and 40K daily transactions, may also gain utility through upcoming layer-2 upgrades introducing smart contracts, potentially boosting its appeal beyond meme status. The SEC’s verdict is now pivotal for the ETF’s fate and DOGE’s broader adoption.

AI agents drive memecoin evolution

Memecoins, often seen as volatile and gimmicky, have untapped potential that can be unlocked by AI agents. These intelligent tools can bring true utility to memecoins, particularly in trading and security. AI-driven systems can autonomously analyze market trends, enhance transparency, and adjust investment strategies faster than traditional tools.

They can also provide security by identifying malicious projects, such as rug pulls. Furthermore, AI agents can foster community engagement, an essential element for memecoin success. By integrating AI, developers can transform memecoins from short-lived trends into robust, valuable financial tools.

21Shares Predicts Dogecoin Could Hit $1.42

21Shares has released research challenging the perception of Dogecoin as a memecoin, suggesting that even a small 1% DOGE allocation can enhance portfolio returns. Their analysis forecasts three potential price scenarios for DOGE by 2025, ranging from a bearish $0.38 to a bullish $1.42, based on historical growth patterns.

While acknowledging some volatility, 21Shares argues that adding DOGE to portfolios could improve risk-adjusted performance, with a price increase of up to 7.67x in the best-case scenario. The firm believes DOGE's potential in the next market cycle is significant.

PEPE Whales Pile on 9 Trillion Tokens

PEPE whales have increased their accumulation, with 9 trillion tokens being purchased in the last 24 hours. A single whale alone bought 1.5 trillion tokens worth $13.3 million. Despite PEPE’s price staying in a narrow range between $0.0000085 and $0.0000092, the surge in whale buying signals growing confidence.

Over the last six days, PEPE’s Large Holder Netflows have remained positive, indicating stronger demand. If whale momentum continues, a breakout could push the memecoin toward $0.00001, although resistance from sellers may keep it within the current price range or lead to a minor retrace.

Why TRUMP Memecoin Traders Should Stay Bullish

TRUMP memecoin has seen a slight 10% drop, but market sentiment remains positive. Despite the pullback, whale accumulation signals continued strong demand, particularly with news of an exclusive event for top holders. The price structure remains bullish, with potential support at $13.65 and key resistance around $16.

A short-term dip may be followed by upward momentum, with $13.4 as the next support level. Traders can stay bullish, as the market’s fundamentals suggest further upside potential despite the recent price dip.

Ecosystem News

In his first 100 days, President Trump enacted several pro-crypto measures, including establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, banning a U.S. CBDC, and appointing crypto-friendly leaders to the SEC and CFTC. He also pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and launched the TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins.

Despite these actions, Bitcoin has declined over 10% since inauguration, and memecoins have experienced significant volatility. Critics argue that the focus on personal tokens undermines broader crypto adoption. While regulatory shifts are underway, the market remains cautious, awaiting concrete legislative frameworks and more substantive policy developments.

The SEC has postponed decisions on ETF listings for Dogecoin and XRP, initially proposed by NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX for Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, respectively. The review deadline now extends to June. This delay coincides with Nasdaq’s filing to list a 21Shares Dogecoin ETF and comes amid a surge of over 70 crypto ETF applications.

While institutional interest is growing, analysts caution that altcoin ETFs may not attract the same demand as Bitcoin or Ethereum products. The SEC’s ultimate stance remains a critical factor for broader ETF adoption and altcoin exposure in traditional markets.

3.7M crypto tokens dead since 2021

Over 3.7 million crypto tokens have failed since 2021, with nearly 50% of those collapses occurring in 2024 and Q1 2025, largely driven by the memecoin boom enabled by Pump.fun. In Q1 2025 alone, 1.8 million tokens went defunct, marking 49.7% of all token deaths to date.

GeckoTerminal attributes the spike to a flood of low-effort projects and broader market turbulence post-Trump’s January 2025 inauguration. Token listings surged from 428,000 in 2021 to nearly 7 million by 2025, but most couldn’t sustain trading activity, highlighting a massive churn rate in the post-Pump.fun crypto ecosystem.

Trump Crypto Team’s 20m Sell-Off Triggers Price Drop

The TRUMP memecoin faced a 9.5% price drop following a $20M sell-off by its founding team across major exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Despite a 33.5% rise in monthly value, the significant outflow has sparked concerns over continued bearish momentum.

The coin’s price dropped from $14.72 to $13.55, and speculation is growing about a potential VIP dinner for TRUMP coin holders amid federal probes into its marketing practices. The inflationary dynamics of the coin, with 80% yet to be released, could further pressure the price in the coming years.

BabyDoge has revisited the lower bound of its 270-day trading range, a historical launchpad for bullish movements. With the current consolidation phase, there is potential for another upside breakout if accumulation holds.

Previous instances show that BabyDoge tends to experience extended sideways movement before breaking out to the highs. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, as BabyDoge remains a high-risk, low-cap token. A break below the range low would invalidate the bullish pattern, signaling a deeper correction. For now, market participants await confirmation of a potential rally.

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