Memecoin Journal - Week 17 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

May 04, 2025

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TL;DR

  • DOGE is up

  • SHIB is up

  • LUCE Meme Coin Spikes After Pope’s Death

  • Shiba Inu burn rate jumps 3,273%

  • TRUMP memecoin holders invited to dinner

  • Dormant wallet buys $1.5m TRUMP ahead of dinner

  • CZ targeted in fake Grok token scam

  • Is Elon Musk Leaving DOGE in May 2025?

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE up 10.7% and SHIB up 10.5%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is mainly on the top two MEME coins

Dogecoin Market Update

Dogecoin (DOGE) is making headlines once again, surging over 12% in the past 24 hours to trade around $0.1828 at the time of writing, outpacing Bitcoin in key metrics and rekindling optimism for a potential run toward new all-time highs.

According to on-chain data from Santiment, Dogecoin has recorded a 41.12% spike in large transaction volume and a 34.91% increase in daily active addresses, while Bitcoin saw double-digit declines in both.

Santiment

This surge in activity suggests heightened interest from both retail investors and large holders, placing DOGE in the spotlight of the early altseason rally.

Technical indicators also support the bullish case. A classic cup formation is unfolding on the weekly chart, signaling a prolonged accumulation phase with potential for a breakout.

A bullish MACD crossover and RSI above 60 on the daily chart reinforce short-term buying pressure. With DOGE currently challenging the $0.185 resistance zone, a move toward the psychological $0.20 mark is now a key focus for traders.

Tradingview

Crypto analyst Javon Marks has further fueled bullish sentiment by revising his Dogecoin price target.

Based on the 5-day candlestick structure and a confirmed higher low at $0.1316, Marks projects a continuation toward $0.6533, with a secondary target of $1.25 in 2025. He noted that similar higher low formations in the past have triggered rallies exceeding 500%.

Marks emphasized that the breakout from the recent low mirrors historic patterns, increasing confidence in the current bullish trajectory.

If the broader crypto market maintains its momentum—particularly Bitcoin staying above $90,000—Dogecoin could feasibly aim for its former peak of $0.74, or even the much-hyped $1 milestone.

For now, all eyes remain on DOGE’s ability to sustain this momentum and break above key resistance levels in the days ahead.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Market Update

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has captured significant attention in the crypto market as it eyes a potential massive price surge, driven by both technical indicators and a remarkable increase in its burn rate.

Analyst ALLINCRYPTO has highlighted a bullish chart formation for SHIB, noting a falling wedge pattern that typically precedes an upward trend reversal.

The analyst points out that SHIB has been in a downtrend since December 2024 but formed this bullish pattern, suggesting a strong upward momentum in the near future.

With SHIB's price gaining over 11% in the past week, currently trading at $0.00001320, ALLINCRYPTO predicts a potential price target of $0.0000141 by the end of April, fueled by the chart's technical setup.

In addition to the positive technical analysis, a surge in SHIB's burn rate is adding further optimism to the coin's prospects. The burn rate saw a staggering 1300% increase recently, with 27.82 million SHIB tokens burnt in just 24 hours.

This reduction in supply is expected to contribute to upward price pressure, as a decrease in supply generally leads to increased demand. The current bullish sentiment is also reflected in SHIB's 3-month bias indicator, showing that bulls are in control.

Market analysts are also watching closely for a crucial breakout. SHIB recently broke through its key resistance level at $0.00001252, reaching as high as $0.00001392. A move above the $0.000014 to $0.000019 zone, where 531 trillion SHIB tokens are held, could trigger a massive rally.

If SHIB breaks this barrier, analysts foresee a potential surge toward $0.000022, reinvigorating its bullish momentum.

In conclusion, both the technical chart formations and the significant uptick in the burn rate position Shiba Inu for a possible breakout, with experts predicting a strong rally ahead.

Financial News

The death of Pope Francis triggered a 134% surge in LUCE, a Solana-based meme coin inspired by the Vatican’s mascot. Though unofficial and unrelated to the Vatican, LUCE saw renewed interest, hitting a $0.02517 high before retreating to $0.015. Its market cap sits at $15 million with 44,750 holders.

The coin’s rise comes despite warnings of a 100% rug pull probability. Pope Francis’ passing has also sparked the launch of other Solana meme coins, including FRANCES and RIP POPE, underscoring the meme market’s rapid reaction to real-world events.

Shiba Inu’s burn rate surged 3,273% in 24 hours, destroying over 28.5 million tokens and sparking fresh interest. Active addresses rose 5.74% and zero-balance wallets jumped 31.11%, reflecting rising network churn and speculative positioning. SHIB traded at $0.00001218, nearing key resistance at $0.00001290.

Open Interest climbed 7.05% to $125.57 million, with 54.06% of traders holding long positions. If bulls break above $0.00001290, SHIB could rally toward $0.00001428. Until then, traders remain cautiously positioned in anticipation of a potential breakout, as on-chain data signals building momentum beneath a tightly coiled price structure.

The TRUMP memecoin surged over 70% after organizers announced an exclusive dinner with Donald Trump for the top 220 token holders. Scheduled for May 22 at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., the event triggered a price rally from $9.00 to $16.03.

Clarifications corrected initial tweets, confirming only the top 220 holders would receive invites. Additionally, the project delayed its initial and daily token unlocks by 90 days to encourage holding. This move aligns with Trump’s increasing crypto engagement, signaling a broader memecoin-fueled shift in political strategy heading into the 2024-2025 election cycle.

MELANIA memecoin has reached a new all-time low, plummeting by 97% to $0.36, after experiencing significant sell-offs, including the core team offloading $14.7 million worth of tokens. The price has been on a steady decline since its launch three months ago, with rising selling pressure and a suspected slow rug pull raising concerns.

Bearish sentiment is strong, with a negative funding rate indicating a preference for short positions. Unless market conditions change, MELANIA may see further losses, potentially hitting a new all-time low of $0.34.

PEPE has confirmed a bullish reversal pattern, testing critical resistance at $0.0000093. A successful breakout could trigger a 63% rally toward $0.00001500. Rising on-chain metrics, including a 38% increase in new and active addresses, signal growing investor interest.

However, whales remain cautious, and institutional sentiment is divided, introducing potential risk. The derivatives market shows optimism, with leverage building and short positions being liquidated. For sustained upward momentum, PEPE must secure a daily close above the resistance to confirm a breakout and continue its rally.

Adoption News

TRUMP memecoin surged 52% after news broke that top 220 tokenholders could dine with President Trump on May 22 at his Washington, DC golf club. The memecoin team holds 80% of supply, while most major holders remain anonymous. Applicants must pass background checks and can’t bring guests.

Launched in January, TRUMP peaked at a $15B market cap before plunging. Despite past anti-crypto views, Trump has embraced NFTs and digital assets during his campaign. His wife’s MELANIA token has dropped over 90% since launch, with $30M reportedly moved from its community funds in April.

Dogecoin enthusiasts marked “Dogeday” on April 20 amid rising anticipation for SEC decisions on multiple DOGE ETF applications. Despite over $2 million in daily inflation, Dogecoin remains the top memecoin with a $23.3B market cap. Analysts highlight its low entry cost and strong community appeal as key to its staying power.

ETF proposals from Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, and Osprey are under SEC review, with initial rulings expected in May. Grayscale’s application is due by May 21, while Bitwise’s may see a response by May 18. The remaining filings await review, with delays extending into October.

Trump-linked assets rallied after Truth Social’s parent company, TMTG, announced plans to launch crypto ETFs under the “Truth.Fi” brand. Partnering with Crypto.com and Yorkville America Digital, the ETFs will blend digital assets with key U.S. sectors and receive up to $250 million in backing.

Trump Media shares rose over 5%, while the TRUMP memecoin jumped 7% to nearly $9, though still down 88% from its peak. This marks TMTG’s deeper push into digital finance, amplifying political and market interest surrounding Trump-affiliated projects ahead of a pivotal election season.

Fartcoin has overtaken Bonk to become the second-largest memecoin on the Solana network after a 15% rally pushed its market cap above $1 billion. The surge follows a breakout from its previous consolidation range of $0.40 to $0.55, with the token reaching $1.06 at press time.

Technical indicators remain bullish, though the RSI nearing 70 signals a potential pullback. In contrast, Bonk remains range-bound with low trading volume, struggling to break resistance near $0.000015. A sustained move higher would require stronger volume to confirm breakout momentum. Fartcoin’s breakout highlights growing appetite for Solana-based memecoin plays.

A wallet dormant for five months recently purchased $1.5 million worth of TRUMP tokens, just before an exclusive dinner with Donald Trump for the top holders. On April 24, the wallet transferred 1.5 million USDC from Binance and acquired 123,228 tokens at around $12.17 each.

This move comes after a surge in token price, as traders rushed to secure a seat at the event scheduled for May 22, 2025. The TRUMP token saw a 32% rise, with daily trading volume reaching $5.4 billion following the dinner announcement.

Ecosystem News

Changpeng Zhao’s wallet received 90 million fake Grok tokens on April 21 amid a surge in Elon Musk-themed scam tokens. PeckShield flagged the coins as part of a likely phishing scheme, distributed via multisend. Grok AI has no official token, yet scammers exploit Musk’s image to lure victims.

Similar Grok scams date back to 2023, with fake tokens crashing post-launch. Phishing attacks remain rampant, with over $1B lost across 296 incidents in 2024. Platforms like Coinbase and Meta continue to be top targets for impersonation, driving the rise in fraud tied to high-profile names.

Tesla has maintained its Bitcoin holdings, keeping 11,509 BTC worth about $1 billion as of Q1 2025. Despite market fluctuations, the company remains a top Bitcoin holder. CEO Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla plans to resume Bitcoin payments once green energy usage by miners reaches 50%.

Additionally, Musk revealed he would reduce his involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to focus more on Tesla, while still dedicating time to DOGE-related matters.

Elon Musk recently clarified that he plans to step back from his role with the Department of Government Efficiency, not from Dogecoin (DOGE) itself. The confusion arose after the department's name, a fun reference to DOGE, led to speculations that Musk would leave the crypto space. Despite his influence, Dogecoin has been holding its ground.

While Musk’s involvement has driven much of DOGE’s volatility, analysts suggest that the coin could eventually thrive without his direct influence, relying on its community and brand recognition to create long-term value.

TRUMP Coin, launched ahead of President Trump's second inauguration, has created a wave of hype but raises serious concerns. Despite skyrocketing in value to $75 in January 2025, the coin has plummeted to around $7 by April 2025, showing high volatility.

Centralized control, with 80% of tokens held by Trump-linked LLCs, increases sell pressure. The coin has no real utility, and its value is tied to political news and sentiment. Ethical and regulatory issues further complicate its investment potential, making $TRUMP a high-risk gamble rather than a reliable financial asset.

Susbarium, the Shiba Inu ecosystem's scam watchdog, issued a warning about new tokens falsely linked to the Shiba Inu network. The tokens, deployed on Ethereum's Base network by Ragnar Shib, a community figure, were flagged as unrelated to Shiba Inu.

Despite Ragnar's prominence, Susbarium clarified that the tokens had no official affiliation with the ecosystem. The controversy led Ragnar to criticize Susbarium for spreading misleading claims. The Shiba Inu community is urged to verify token sources to avoid falling victim to scams disguised as legitimate Shiba Inu projects.

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