Memecoin Journal - Week 16 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

April 27, 2025

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TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • PumpSwap Hits $2.5B in Weekly Trades

  • Dogecoin at a make-or-break level

  • Raydium Launches LaunchLab to Rival Pump.fun

  • Whale Converts $5M Into TRUMP Tokens

  • Coinbase Distances Base from Memecoin Fallout

  • TRUMP Team Withdraws $4.6M from Liquidity Pool

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 0.3% and SHIB down 0.1%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is mainly on the top two MEME coins

Dogecoin Market Update

Dogecoin (DOGE) has recently witnessed a significant uptick in whale activity, which could signal the potential for a market rebound.

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, whales have been actively accumulating DOGE tokens, with one notable purchase of over 800 million DOGE (valued at approximately $130 million) over a 48-hour period.

This surge in accumulation began on April 9 and continued through mid-April, indicating a shift in sentiment among large-scale investors. Martinez suggests that these purchases are likely driven by the anticipation of a price rally, especially as DOGE has been trading at relatively low prices around $0.16.

The increased whale interest aligns with a modest price uptick, from $0.153 to $0.165, and comes after a general decline in Dogecoin's value over the past month. This suggests that whales are taking advantage of the dip, positioning themselves for potential gains as broader market conditions stabilize.

The latest data reveals that around 72.13% of long-term DOGE holders are currently in long positions, a sign of growing confidence in the coin’s future prospects.

In a broader context, the meme coin sector, including Dogecoin, is still actively generating strong trading volumes, despite recent pullbacks. As noted by analyst Wale Swoosh, meme coins continue to dominate with $2 billion in daily exchange volume, which, although down from peak levels, still indicates strong investor interest.

This sustained activity, combined with innovations in the meme coin space, suggests that the sector is entering a more structured phase, which may offer additional upside for coins like Dogecoin.

However, some traders, such as Koala, believe that Dogecoin may not reach its all-time highs again but still see a potential for 200% to 300% gains from current levels.

With whale activity signaling confidence and the broader meme coin market showing signs of life, Dogecoin could be poised for a potential rebound in the coming weeks, especially if momentum continues to build.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Market Update

Shiba Inu (SHIB) remains in a bearish market structure, with its price struggling to break free from a descending channel pattern that has been in place since December 2024.

The cryptocurrency is showing a steady decline, trading at $0.0000119 at the time of writing, a 3.5% drop in the past 24 hours. This decline is accompanied by a 17% decrease in trading volume, reflecting diminished participation from both individual traders and institutional investors.

Technical analysis from AMBCrypto indicates that SHIB is encountering significant resistance near the upper boundary of its descending channel.

TradingView

The failure to break above this level could lead to a further decline of up to 30%, with the price potentially dropping to the lower boundary of the pattern at $0.0000084.

This bearish outlook is compounded by the fact that SHIB is trading below both its 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a strong downward trend with little to no upward momentum in sight.

On-chain data from Coinglass reveals that sentiment among traders is overwhelmingly bearish, with 62% of top traders holding short positions. The Long/Short Ratio stands at 0.615, highlighting the dominance of short sellers in the market.

At current price levels, traders are heavily leveraged, with significant positions placed at $0.0000117 as support and $0.00001245 as resistance. These levels mark crucial points for the asset’s price action in the near term.

Unless there is a drastic shift in market sentiment or a breakout above the $0.0000128 level, the bearish trend is likely to persist, potentially driving SHIB lower.

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Financial News

Fartcoin has gained 181% over the past 30 days, outperforming the broader market, but recent $5.74 million in net outflows suggest growing profit-taking by large holders. Technical analysts point to a completed cup and handle pattern with potential for a breakout if resistance at $0.955 is cleared.

Support lies near $0.85, while multiple failed breakouts around $0.95 highlight key resistance. While bullish patterns suggest upside toward $1, diverging analyst opinions and erratic capital flows raise caution. As a meme coin without underlying fundamentals, Fartcoin’s trajectory remains driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than utility.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is hovering near a crucial support at $0.00001192 as its burn rate spikes over 3,200%, with over 30 million tokens incinerated in a day. Despite burning 410 trillion tokens since launch and Shibarium’s impressive growth—now with 1.047 billion transactions—only 20% of holders remain in profit.

Technically, SHIB sits on a critical long-term trendline, failing to break lower six times since 2021. A drop below this level could trigger a further 50% decline toward $0.000005840, erasing gains made since June 2023 and challenging SHIB’s resilience amid deflationary momentum.

Fartcoin has faced a significant sell-off, with 8.5 million tokens worth $8.33 million sold by whales. Despite this, the memecoin continues to post impressive gains, including a 239% monthly rise. Its MVRV ratio of 1.50 signals it’s not overvalued, and adoption metrics show strong growth.

While the market sees a technical pullback with profit-taking, the absence of overvaluation points to sustained confidence. Fartcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, suggesting the $1 mark could be closer than expected, with any short-term pullbacks likely being brief before potential further upside.

Dogecoin is retesting its multi-year channel low support, a historically significant zone that previously fueled a sharp bullish reversal. Despite maintaining a bearish structure with lower highs and lows, price action now mirrors the early stages of a potential rounded bottom.

If DOGE holds this base and volume increases, a breakout toward the channel high could trigger a 100% rally. Traders are watching for impulsive buying and higher lows to confirm the setup. With volume declining and volatility expected, this zone could be a launchpad or a breakdown point, making it a critical moment for DOGE’s trajectory.

PumpSwap, the decentralized exchange from Pump.Fun, processed $2.5 billion in trades last week, marking a 40% increase from the prior week. Since its launch in March, the DEX has surpassed $98 million in total trades, with daily activity reaching new records, including 6.1 million trades on April 12.

The platform’s trading volume growth is reflected in record daily fees of over $1 million. Notably, over 500 wallets have earned $1 million or more through memecoin trading on PumpSwap, with some individuals seeing gains as high as $40.6 million in the last 30 days.

Adoption News

Raydium unveiled LaunchLab on April 16, designed to compete with memecoin platform Pump.fun. LaunchLab offers customizable bonding curves and zero migration fees, allowing tokens that raise 85 Solana to transition directly to Raydium's automated market maker (AMM).

Token creators can launch for free and earn 10% of the trading fees once their tokens graduate. Following the announcement, Raydium's RAY token surged nearly 14%, while PumpSwap continued to set trading volume records, reaching $460 million on April 17, further solidifying its position in the market.

A whale recently purchased $5 million worth of TRUMP tokens, acquiring 660,339 at an average price of $7.93. This move triggered a 2% price surge, bringing TRUMP to $8.05, despite a struggling broader market. Following the transaction, the Long/Short ratio shifted to 1.11, indicating increasing bullish sentiment.

However, large leveraged positions around $7.56 and $8.24 create liquidation risks. Technically, if TRUMP breaks above $8.50, an 18% rally to $10.10 is possible, but failure to surpass this level may lead to a reversal. Traders are closely watching the $8.50 resistance.

Dogecoin whales have aggressively accumulated over 800 million DOGE tokens in the past 24 hours, signaling strong market confidence. Despite this, Dogecoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum, dropping from $0.16 to a low of $0.157.

Whale buying activity typically indicates bullish sentiment, and recent data shows increased buying from retail investors as well. However, a bearish crossover on the Stochastic RSI suggests the downtrend may continue. If the price drops further, it could reach $0.156 before any potential rally. A strong upswing to $0.170 remains possible if buying pressure increases.

MoonPay has introduced MoonPay Labs, an accelerator focused on nurturing early-stage Web3 startups through capital, tailored support, and strategic guidance. The program will select up to five technical teams annually building in areas such as DeFi, SocialFi, and stablecoin infrastructure. MoonPay Labs offers product support, UX workshops, token launch advisory, and access to MoonPay’s tools.

MoonGate, a Solana-based wallet-as-a-service platform, is the first participant. Structured under MoonPay’s Corporate Development group, the initiative complements MoonPay Ventures, which has backed over 30 Web3 firms since 2023. Follow-up funding may be available to reduce founder dilution before Series A rounds.

Pump.Fun’s co-founder, Alon Cohen, rejected Coinbase's Layer 2 network Base’s controversial auto-minted token experiment, which led to a 90% crash. Cohen emphasized that his platform would not engage in stealth coin launches and stressed the responsibility of creators in the crypto space.

Despite Base's token falling drastically, Cohen reaffirmed that Pump.Fun would prioritize alignment with its user base and follow more careful tokenization practices. While Base defended its initiative as an experiment, Cohen's comments highlight the growing importance of maintaining integrity in meme coin launches and social influence.

Ecosystem News

Coinbase has distanced its blockchain Base from a controversial memecoin that rapidly rose and crashed, losing millions. The token, promoted via Base’s X account, saw a market cap of $17.1 million before plummeting by nearly 90%. Coinbase clarified that Base did not launch the token, stating it was part of Zora's platform, which automatically tokenizes content.

Despite Base’s legal disclaimer, the incident triggered significant backlash, with critics arguing it tarnished the blockchain's credibility. The token has since recovered slightly, and Base clarified it would not sell the tokens, with proceeds directed to development grants.

The TRUMP meme coin’s development team has sparked concerns of a potential rug pull after withdrawing $4.6 million in USDC from its liquidity pool. The funds were bridged to Ethereum and deposited into Coinbase Prime, leading traders to speculate about a future sell-off.

This withdrawal coincides with the scheduled unlocking of 40 million tokens, worth $320 million. Despite a 6% increase in the token’s price over the past week, its value remains significantly below its all-time high. Traders are closely monitoring the situation as fears of a possible exit loom.

Bybit is reissuing all PAWS tokens after a flawed April 15 airdrop left users with uneven distributions, sparking widespread frustration. Some users received more than they should, others none, and those in the European Economic Area remain excluded due to MiCA regulations.

The PAWS team provided a revised eligibility list, prompting Bybit’s action. Originally a Telegram-based reward app, PAWS migrated to Solana after Telegram’s policy shift favoring the TON network. Bybit has not confirmed any compensation plans, but aims to complete redistribution before the token’s spot listing. Users continue to demand better accountability from the exchange.

TRUMP, the Solana-based memecoin linked to Donald Trump, is under pressure as a $320 million token unlock approaches on April 18. The event will release 40 million tokens to the team, expanding supply by 20%. Daily unlocks of $4 million will continue through July.

TRUMP has dropped 5% to $8.27, 88% below its all-time high. On-chain data shows a decline in wallet holders and low concentration of significant holdings. Technical indicators suggest further downside, with key support at $7.50. Market sentiment remains fragile as investors brace for the impact of the supply surge.

Solana’s explosive meme coin wave, driven by Trump’s TRUMP and Melania’s MELANIA tokens, pushed activity and fees to all-time highs in January, with daily revenue peaking at $16 million. However, the hype quickly faded, dragging down user engagement, DEX volumes, and SOL’s price.

Analysts now see a shift toward long-term value creation, with 6x growth in stablecoin supply and rising DeFi and developer activity. Despite the crash in meme coin momentum, Solana’s core fundamentals and growing adoption in DeFi, DePIN, and SocialFi indicate strong potential for sustained network growth beyond speculative assets.

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