Memecoin Journal - Week 15 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

April 21, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • Fartcoin Defies Market Slump with 30% Surge

  • McGregor’s Memecoin Fails to Meet Presale Goal

  • 21Shares Files for Spot Dogecoin ETF

  • Ric Flair Launches Tokenized Telegram Stickers

  • Melania Memecoin Team Sells $30M in Tokens

  • Maxine Waters Criticizes Trump’s Crypto Ventures

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 5.6% and SHIB down 3.1%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is mainly on the top two MEME coins

Dogecoin Market Update: Key Developments and Price Outlook

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a notable surge, with its price rallying nearly 12% following an announcement that asset manager 21Shares filed an S-1 application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

The filing, which aims to give investors exposure to DOGE without direct cryptocurrency transactions, has helped propel the price of Dogecoin as part of a broader recovery in the memecoin sector.

The ETF, custodied by Coinbase Custody Trust, is expected to offer a passive investment vehicle, mirroring the performance of Dogecoin without attempting to generate returns beyond tracking the asset’s price.

According to Duncan Moir, President of 21Shares, this move is a significant step toward broadening access to digital assets, underscoring Dogecoin’s growing adoption in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The filing places 21Shares in competition with other firms, such as Bitwise and Grayscale, which are also waiting for regulatory approval to launch Dogecoin ETFs. However, despite this optimistic development, Dogecoin’s performance has been somewhat muted over the longer term, with the token still down by 5% on the week and 17% over the past year.

Technical Analysis: Support Level Holds Strong
On the technical front, Dogecoin is showing signs of strength, particularly at its critical support level of $0.13, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

This key support has historically acted as a pivot point for upward movements, suggesting that DOGE could be poised for a breakout. Currently, Dogecoin is trading just above this level, with a slight dip of 4.90% over the last 24 hours, priced at $0.1446.

A bullish pennant formation is emerging in the charts, a technical pattern that often signals potential price reversals. The $0.13 support level remains crucial, as maintaining this level could provide the foundation for a move toward higher resistance levels, such as $0.20 and potentially $0.30.

Trading View

However, traders are awaiting confirmation of a breakout above these resistance levels.

On-Chain Metrics and Scarcity Signals
Despite the positive price action, on-chain metrics for Dogecoin remain somewhat weak. Active addresses have remained low, with only 42,816 daily active addresses recorded, and transaction volumes are relatively muted, at 20,793 transactions.

These metrics indicate that user engagement has not kept pace with the bullish technical structure, which could limit the sustainability of any rally unless there is a significant uptick in activity.

However, the spike in Dogecoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio offers a more optimistic outlook. The S2F ratio has surged to 69.09 from a consistent range of 29, suggesting a shift toward perceived scarcity.

Santiment

Historically, such an increase has correlated with price appreciation, signaling potential renewed interest from long-term investors.

MVRV Ratio and Potential Undervaluation
Dogecoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently at 1.47%, indicating that most holders are near their breakeven point. This metric suggests minimal selling pressure, which could set the stage for a potential price increase if the MVRV ratio begins to rise, signaling undervaluation and the possibility of a shift in sentiment.

What’s Next for Dogecoin?
In conclusion, while Dogecoin’s market momentum has been bolstered by the ETF filing and bullish technical indicators, on-chain activity and user engagement remain key factors that need improvement for the rally to gain sustained traction. The spike in Dogecoin’s S2F ratio, coupled with the strong support at $0.13, creates a foundation for potential upward movement, with $0.20 as a near-term target.

If DOGE can maintain support and confirm a breakout above resistance levels, it could see further gains in the coming weeks. However, without a significant increase in on-chain activity and broader investor participation, the rally might face challenges. Traders should closely monitor these developments to gauge whether the bullish signals can transform into a sustained upward trend.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Market Update

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) market has witnessed significant fluctuations recently, with both positive and negative trends shaping its current trajectory. On April 9, 2025, SHIB experienced a notable 13% price increase and a 56% surge in trading volume, signaling a potential resurgence of interest.

Trading View

This rally comes in the wake of a broader cryptocurrency market recovery, which saw an overall 7.5% rise in global market capitalization. Analysts have noted that this surge may be driven by renewed enthusiasm from both retail and institutional investors, as trading volume typically suggests strong buying pressure, possibly fueled by whale activity.

Despite the price rally, the SHIB burn rate has been a topic of concern. Over the same period, the burn rate only rose by 10.87%, a modest increase considering the price surge.

The burn rate, an important metric for reducing circulating supply and increasing scarcity, had fallen drastically in the previous weeks, with a sharp 82.58% decline in weekly burns.

This stagnation in token utility has led some to question the sustainability of SHIB's rally. The relatively stable on-chain fundamentals suggest that the recent price increase might be more sentiment-driven than a reflection of any significant deflationary impact from burns.

On the technical front, Shiba Inu’s price recently bounced from key support levels around $0.00001035 to $0.00001393. SHIB's price action is forming a bullish wedge, with the RSI nearing oversold territory, which typically signals potential rebound opportunities.

However, SHIB's price needs to reclaim the $0.00001393 resistance level to confirm a bullish trend. Failure to break this level could see a retest of lower support levels, potentially dragging the price down further.

Sentiment among SHIB holders remains cautious, with data from IntoTheBlock showing that 89.95% of SHIB holders are currently at a loss, while only 9.37% are in profit.

This suggests that while some investors are hopeful for a rebound, many are still sitting on significant unrealized losses. Moreover, exchange behavior reveals a net outflow of SHIB, which might indicate that long-term holders are accumulating, waiting for a more substantial rally.

Despite the challenges, analysts like Chami and Amosun agree that SHIB’s market is not in retreat but rather in consolidation, with the potential for a breakout if price action supports further accumulation.

The memecoin’s volatility remains a defining characteristic, and while risks persist, there are signs that Shiba Inu could be preparing for a more sustained upward move if the broader market momentum continues.

Financial News

While global markets experience a downturn, Solana-based memecoin Fartcoin has risen by 30%, reaching $0.60 on April 8. After hitting a low of $0.42 on April 7 amidst a broader crypto slump, Fartcoin surged more than 40%, making it one of the top-performing assets.

Known for bouncing back during market drops, Fartcoin continues to defy trends, with increasing volume despite the lack of utility. Other Solana-based memecoins, such as Fartboy, are also seeing gains, though many memecoins remain significantly down from their previous peaks.

Conor McGregor’s REAL memecoin failed to meet its $1 million minimum presale goal, raising only $392,000, or 31% of the target, before being called off. The presale, conducted in a sealed-bid auction format, aimed to raise $3.6 million but was hindered by market conditions and a lack of investor confidence.

Despite celebrity backing and promises of transparency, DAO voting rights, and gaming use, the project struggled amid a tough market and concerns over celebrity-backed token risks. McGregor’s team has since paused the project, promising refunds to all investors.

The Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) crypto, a meme coin associated with the term coined by NYC Mayor Eric Adams, plummeted more than 20% on April 7, mirroring the sharp declines in global stock markets triggered by trade tariffs introduced by Donald Trump.

The TDS token, which had been gaining traction among traders, briefly recovered but remains down over 15%. With its value nearing an all-time low, the TDS token is showing vulnerability amidst broader market volatility, as major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced significant losses.

Shiba Inu's burn rate dropped by 82% in just seven days, raising concerns about the memecoin’s future. While the burn slowdown may suggest waning hype, on-chain metrics point to growing whale accumulation and a potential bullish reversal.

Despite a 2.23% price decline to $0.00001095, SHIB’s technical indicators show it could be preparing for a breakout. The token is testing key support levels, with RSI nearing oversold territory. However, a shift in momentum hinges on reclaiming resistance levels and strong buying volume, as a high percentage of holders are currently at a loss.

Shiba Inu whales have offloaded 801 billion tokens in the past 24 hours, marking a 343% increase in sell-side activity. This massive sell-off, driven by market volatility, resulted in a drop in SHIB’s price from $0.00001173 to $0.00001125.

The increase in selling pressure has led to a negative netflow and heightened bearish sentiment among large holders. Technical indicators, including the Stoch RSI and MACD, signal continued downward momentum, with potential for SHIB to fall to $0.000010 unless a bullish reversal emerges with a close above $0.00001142.

Adoption News

21Shares, a digital asset manager, has filed with the US SEC to launch a spot Dogecoin ETF, aiming to track the price of the memecoin. The Dogecoin Foundation's House of Doge will assist in marketing the fund. Coinbase Custody is proposed as the custodian. This follows similar filings from Bitwise and Grayscale.

21Shares is also expanding its spot crypto ETF offerings, having already filed for Polkadot and XRP funds. Analysts estimate a 64-75% chance of SEC approval for the Dogecoin ETF this year, reflecting growing interest in crypto-based exchange-traded products.

Ric Flair, the iconic wrestling star, launched a tokenized sticker collection on Telegram, aiming to engage his fanbase through the platform’s fast-paced communication. The initiative, unveiled on April 9, offers fans exclusive digital content tied to Flair's persona, with potential future rewards for early adopters.

This launch follows recent celebrity-driven token projects, like Conor McGregor’s failed memecoin, showcasing the challenges of the crypto market amid economic uncertainty. Flair's foray into tokenization aligns with his previous "Wooooo!" memecoin launch, highlighting his continued efforts to merge the worlds of wrestling and digital assets.

Dogecoin futures traders are showing strong bullish sentiment, with long positions reaching 80% on Binance Futures. However, broader market trends reflect caution, as DOGE's price has fallen 32% since February, with trading volume plunging by 95%.

Whale activity has significantly dropped, and Daily Active Addresses (DAA) have decreased by 22%. Despite the futures surge, spot market metrics indicate waning interest from institutional participants and reduced network activity, suggesting that the current optimism may be speculative, with a cautious outlook for DOGE in the longer term.

The U.S. Department of Justice has reportedly shut down the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, a group created in 2021 under President Biden to target crypto-related crime. A memo from Deputy General Todd Blanche criticized the previous administration's approach to regulating digital assets through prosecutions.

The move follows Trump’s recent executive order on crypto policy. While Trump promotes pro-crypto policies, including memecoins, DeFi projects, and crypto ETFs, critics are raising concerns about conflicts of interest, particularly involving his USD1 stablecoin and its possible impact on the U.S. monetary system.

Fortnite players have uncovered a new hidden Dill Bits server mine, closely resembling a crypto mining operation. The in-game location drop coincided with a 200% price spike in a Solana-based Dill Bits memecoin, which shares its name with Fortnite’s parody currency.

Though Dill Bits can only be used for in-game purchases, the ongoing crypto-themed easter eggs have repeatedly triggered real-world market pumps. This marks the third time the memecoin has surged following Fortnite updates linked to its ongoing “Rugpull” storyline and map tweaks.

Ecosystem News

The team behind Melania Trump’s memecoin, MELANIA, has moved $30 million worth of tokens from community funds and began selling them, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps. The tokens were transferred to a single wallet, then split across multiple addresses, with some being sold and moved to exchanges.

Despite the large transactions, neither the MELANIA team nor Hayden Davis, a key figure behind the token, has provided any explanation. MELANIA's value has significantly dropped, losing over 96% since its January peak, further reflecting the ongoing decline in memecoin interest.

Argentina’s Chamber of Deputies has approved a formal investigation into the LIBRA memecoin scandal, which resulted in a $280 million loss for 75,000 traders. Lawmakers established a commission to probe the token's rapid rise and crash, summoning top government officials for questioning.

The inquiry follows the controversial promotion of LIBRA by President Javier Milei, which spiked the token’s value by 3,000% before crashing. Investigations revealed possible insider trading and liquidity manipulation, sparking lawsuits. The scandal could harm Milei’s political credibility ahead of the upcoming elections.

Congresswoman Maxine Waters criticized President Trump for allegedly enriching himself through crypto ventures, particularly the Official Trump Token (TRUMP) and the USD1 stablecoin. Waters highlighted the token’s 90% decline, resulting in significant losses for retail investors, while Trump’s net worth surged by billions, partially due to his crypto exposure.

She expressed concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the risk of political influence in crypto legislation. Waters called for tighter ethical checks on public officials involved in the digital asset space, urging lawmakers to address these issues in future crypto policies.

Binance co-founder Yi He responded to critics accusing the exchange of causing significant price drops in tokens like ACT, TST, and MASK. Following declines up to 50%, Yi He clarified that Binance cannot be responsible for the fluctuations of coins listed on its platform.

While acknowledging ongoing issues, she expressed frustration over persistent accusations and emphasized the exchange’s commitment to improving its operations. Despite the backlash, Yi He defended Binance's role in the market, stating the platform cannot control token performance during market volatility.

Raydium has seen its share of Solana-based memecoin trading rise to 83% in Q1 2025, despite a broader decline in the memecoin market. This growth is largely attributed to its partnership with Pump.fun, which contributes over 50% of SPL token creation.

However, Pump.fun’s recent launch of its own decentralized exchange (DEX) could impact Raydium’s dominance. While Raydium’s LaunchLab platform aims to capture memecoin projects, it faces stiff competition from Pump.fun, which has cultivated a strong community. The future of Raydium’s dominance depends on the success of its new platform.

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