Memecoin Journal - Week 14 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

April 13, 2025

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TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • Altcoin Sell-Off on April 1 Sparks Market Turmoil

  • Shiba Inu Faces 20% Drop, Burn Rate Rises 30%

  • Elon Musk Denies U.S. Government Adoption of Dogecoin

  • Husky Inu Announces HINU Token Launch Date

  • DOGE Official at DOJ Faces Hacking Past Scrutiny

  • Elon Musk Denies DOGE Resignation Rumors

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 16.4% and SHIB down 14.8%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is mainly on the top two MEME coins

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant downturn over the past week, shedding more than 16% of its value as it grapples with persistent selling pressure. Technical indicators present a mixed outlook, hinting at a potential recovery while broader sentiment remains uncertain, particularly following Elon Musk’s statement distancing DOGE from U.S. government plans.

Technical Indicators Show Signs of Recovery

Despite the recent price decline, technical indicators suggest that Dogecoin could be nearing a shift in momentum. The Ichimoku Cloud setup indicates volatility, with the price bars trading below the cloud, confirming a downtrend.

However, a key signal emerges as the Conversion Line begins to curve upward toward the Base Line, suggesting an increase in buying pressure. A breakthrough above the cloud could solidify a bullish reversal, though market sentiment remains cautious.

Tradingview

The BBTrend indicator, which tracks market momentum, remains in negative territory at -11.78, improving slightly from -13.96. Readings below -10 indicate strong bearish momentum, but the gradual recovery suggests that selling pressure may be losing strength.

Tradingview

This hints at a potential technical bounce or consolidation phase in the near term. Analysts note that for a confirmed trend reversal, the BBTrend must decisively move toward neutral or positive territory.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Dogecoin’s immediate resistance level sits at $0.179. A successful breakout above this threshold could pave the way for DOGE to challenge higher targets, potentially reaching $0.20.

However, the EMA alignment remains bearish, with short-term moving averages still trailing below long-term ones. Unless this structure flips, DOGE remains at risk of further declines.

If bearish pressure continues, Dogecoin faces a critical support level at $0.16, which has proven resilient in past downturns. A breakdown below this level could lead to an extended decline toward $0.14, marking a significant drop from current levels.

Elon Musk’s Statement Dampens Sentiment

Elon Musk’s recent comments have impacted Dogecoin’s market sentiment, causing traders to reassess their expectations. In a town hall meeting in Wisconsin, Musk clarified that the U.S. government has no plans to integrate Dogecoin into any official programs.

He stated, “There are no plans for the government to use Dogecoin for anything as far as I know…The names are similar, but they’re doing two very different things.”

This announcement disappointed Dogecoin traders who had speculated about potential government adoption. While Musk has previously influenced DOGE’s price with endorsements, his recent distancing from the token raises concerns about its long-term hype-driven appeal.

Derivatives Market and Trader Sentiment

Despite the broader uncertainty, Dogecoin derivatives traders remain optimistic. Data from Binance and OKX show a long/short ratio of 3, indicating that a majority of traders are betting on DOGE’s price increasing. Additionally, options volume surged 181.45% in the last 24 hours, suggesting increased interest in speculative trades.

Coinglass

Sentiment among Dogecoin holders currently sits at 69 out of 100, reflecting cautious optimism. While the overall hype surrounding Dogecoin has cooled, whale accumulation remains strong. Large holders acquired an additional 220 million DOGE in March, a factor that could support future price stability.

Conclusion

Dogecoin remains at a crossroads as early recovery signals clash with bearish technicals. The Ichimoku Cloud and BBTrend hint at a potential turnaround, but the EMA structure remains bearish. While Musk’s comments have dampened sentiment, derivatives traders remain confident. Reclaiming $0.179 as support will be key for DOGE’s momentum.

Shiba Inu Market Update: Whale Accumulation and Burn Surge

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has faced notable market turbulence, with key on-chain metrics showing sharp declines while whale activity and token burns paint a complex picture of its trajectory.

Despite an 83% drop in large holders' netflow activity, analysts suggest a potential bullish turnaround due to accumulation trends. Meanwhile, the SHIB burn rate has skyrocketed, but its price remains subdued.

Whale Accumulation Despite Declining Netflow

According to IntoTheBlock, net inflows and outflows in whale wallets—holding at least 0.1% of SHIB’s circulating supply—plummeted by 83% in the last 24 hours. This sharp decline signals reduced large-scale trading activity.

However, the netflow balance improved from -141.37 billion SHIB to -29.05 billion SHIB, suggesting that major holders are accumulating rather than offloading their tokens.

Analysts highlight that SHIB has lost 67% of its value since December 1, dropping from $0.00003343 to its current range of $0.00001082. This prolonged bearish period raises questions about whether SHIB has reached a bottom and if accumulation by large holders could lead to a reversal.

SHIB Burn Rate Soars Over 104,000%

On the deflationary front, Shiba Inu’s burn mechanism saw a dramatic 104,201% increase, removing over 115 million SHIB from circulation in just 24 hours. Data from Shibburn confirms that the project has burnt 1.17 billion SHIB over the past week, contributing to a total burn of 410.72 trillion tokens.

Notably, a single wallet, identified as “0xc439514852e132c,” was responsible for burning 92.64 million SHIB in one transaction, underlining the growing role of individual participants in the deflationary strategy.

However, while burns theoretically reduce supply and can drive up prices, SHIB’s massive circulating supply—still at 589.25 trillion—dampens the immediate impact.

Shibarium Milestone and Market Sentiment

Beyond burning efforts, Shiba Inu’s Layer-2 blockchain, Shibarium, continues to grow, surpassing 1 billion transactions since its August 2023 launch. This expansion enhances SHIB’s utility through lower transaction fees and faster processing times, fueling optimism for long-term adoption.

Despite these developments, SHIB’s price remains under pressure. CoinMarketCap data shows a 3.28% drop in the last 24 hours to $0.00001233, while weekly losses stand at 20%. Analysts attribute this to broader market bearishness, including concerns over macroeconomic uncertainties linked to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

While accumulation and burns suggest long-term bullish potential, short-term price action remains weak, making SHIB’s next move a crucial point of interest for investors.

Financial News

A crypto trader turned a $2,000 PEPE investment into $43 million at its peak, ultimately cashing out $10 million in profits. Despite PEPE’s 74% decline from its all-time high, the trader secured gains by selling 1.02T tokens for $6.66M while holding 493B PEPE worth $3.64M.

Memecoins continue to dominate market trends, drawing capital away from established assets like Solana. However, rising concerns over insider scams and regulatory scrutiny have led lawmakers to propose new investor protection measures, underscoring the risks associated with speculative tokens despite their potential for massive returns.

BNB Chain is capturing memecoin volume from Solana as speculative capital shifts. Solana, once dominant, faced trust issues after insider trading allegations, opening the door for BNB Chain’s rise. Platforms like PancakeSwap and Four.meme are driving activity, with BNB Chain topping DEX volumes for multiple days.

Binance’s support, liquidity incentives, and viral trends like Broccoli-themed tokens have fueled momentum. While Solana still leads in transaction volume, its memecoin market is cooling. Experts view this as a cyclical shift rather than a permanent change, reflecting evolving trader behavior and market trends in the ever-volatile DeFi landscape.

A sudden crash in several altcoins and memecoins on April 1 saw Act I The AI Prophecy (ACT) plummet by 58% in minutes, erasing $96 million from its market cap. The downturn coincided with Binance’s margin updates, which triggered major liquidations, including a $3.8 million whale position.

Binance has launched an investigation into the incident, citing sales from VIP users but finding no clear market manipulation. Meanwhile, speculation swirled around Wintermute’s role, though its CEO denied involvement. Despite the chaos, Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies remained stable, showing resilience amid the altcoin volatility.

Shiba Inu's price has pulled back by 20%, currently at $0.00001270, following a broader market decline with US equities and Bitcoin facing significant drops. Despite this, positive indicators suggest potential for a rebound. The SHIB burn rate has risen 30%, with over 410 trillion tokens burned.

Shibarium's total value locked (TVL) increased 24% to $2.5 million, with ShibaSwap, WoofSwap, and ChewySwap all seeing significant growth. These developments highlight a solid foundation, although broader market conditions continue to exert downward pressure on Shiba Inu's price.

PumpSwap, the decentralized exchange by Pump.fun, has processed $2.43 billion in trading volume within ten days of launch. The platform has attracted 700,000 active wallets, generated $5.4 million in fees, and facilitated 30.59 million swaps.

PumpSwap simplifies memecoin trading by combining liquidity, token creation, and swaps into a single platform. With 8% of Solana’s DEX volume, it’s rapidly gaining traction. A recent integration with MEXC expands accessibility, positioning PumpSwap for continued growth despite a broader decline in Solana’s DEX activity.

Adoption News

Elon Musk has dismissed speculation that the U.S. government plans to adopt Dogecoin, clarifying that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is not linked to the memecoin. His statement came amid DOGE’s 8% price drop over the past week, with bearish trends and low buying pressure persisting.

Despite Musk’s past influence on Dogecoin’s price, the memecoin is struggling, trading at $0.162 with technical indicators signaling weakness. With DOGE nearing oversold levels, a break below $0.16 could lead to further declines, adding uncertainty to its short-term outlook.

Solana-based memecoin BONK has acquired Exchange Art, a fine-art NFT marketplace, marking a strategic move into digital art. The acquisition brings new leadership, with artist J.T. Liss taking over to enhance the platform’s functionality. BONK’s integration aims to expand opportunities for artists and collectors while deepening its ecosystem’s utility.

The move highlights the growing intersection between crypto and NFTs, positioning BONK beyond its memecoin origins. With plans for improved marketplace features, this acquisition reinforces BONK’s broader ambitions in Web3 adoption.

Husky Inu has officially set the launch date for its highly anticipated HINU token, scheduled for March 27, 2026. The project, aiming to challenge established meme coins like DOGE and SHIB, has seen remarkable growth in its community.

The team emphasized that current market conditions are not favorable for a successful launch, warning of potential investor losses. However, they remain open to an earlier release if market conditions improve. Additionally, Husky Inu confirmed the launch of its Earn App on May 14, 2025, designed to drive organic engagement and expand the project's reach.

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) is unlikely to invest in the TRUMP memecoin, according to Polymarket bettors. The odds of TMTG purchasing TRUMP before July 1 are just 16%, with $142,753 wagered on the outcome.

The memecoin, which saw a $75 billion valuation at launch, has since dropped 86% in value. TMTG, co-founded by Donald Trump, recently partnered with Crypto.com for exchange-traded funds, but TRUMP has yet to be included in their offerings. As of now, TRUMP is trading at $10.09, down 1.79% in the last 24 hours.

9GAG has acquired Hong Kong-listed Howkingtech for $10.2 million, planning to rebrand it as MemeStrategy. This acquisition aligns with 9GAG’s strategy to dive deeper into the meme, AI, and crypto markets.

The move aims to capitalize on meme culture’s growing influence in Web3 and strengthen the company’s position in the cryptocurrency space. Following the news, Howkingtech's stock surged by 3.5%, highlighting strong investor confidence in integrating meme culture with blockchain and AI technologies, further fueling Web3 adoption.

Ecosystem News

The team behind $ACT, a Solana-based AI-integrated memecoin, has launched an investigation following a near 50% price drop on Binance. The sudden decline comes amid broader market weakness, with multiple altcoins losing between 20% and 50%. $ACT initially surged 1,700% after listings on Binance and Crypto.com, reaching a $422 million market cap.

However, volatility increased after its founder, Amp, sold a large portion of his holdings and stepped away, leaving the project community-driven. The team is assessing whether internal or external factors triggered the drop and has assured holders that updates will follow as more details emerge.

Christopher Stanley, a senior advisor at the U.S. Justice Department, is under scrutiny due to his past involvement in hacking and distributing pirated software. Previously working for X and SpaceX, Stanley ran forums related to piracy and game cheats from a young age.

Despite holding an active security clearance, concerns have arisen over his past actions and his role in managing sensitive government data. His background raises questions about the vetting process for government positions, particularly in roles related to national security.

Elon Musk dismissed rumors of his resignation from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), labeling the claims as "fake news" on social media. His denial helped stabilize market sentiment, calming concerns among investors.

Despite the 44.81% decline in DOGE’s price over the past 60 days, Musk's clarification has been seen as a reassurance for DOGE holders. As of April 2, 2025, DOGE’s price stands at $0.17, with a market cap of $25.82 billion. Market adjustments continue, yet Musk’s influence is expected to play a role in fostering long-term growth.

Dogwifhat organizers have abandoned plans to advertise the Solana meme coin on the Las Vegas Sphere after raising nearly $700K for the campaign. Despite initial announcements, no agreement was reached with the Sphere, which only accepts crypto ads for Bitcoin.

Organizer GamesMasterFlex confirmed refunds would begin on April 2, 2025, with funds traceable via the Solana blockchain. The decision follows a series of setbacks, including the breakdown of partnerships and community backlash. Despite the challenges, the refund process aims to restore confidence, and the market has shown a positive response to the update.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, recently burned millions worth of meme coins, including Tutorial (TUT) and Brocolli (BROCCO), after project founders donated them. This act, aimed at avoiding the risks associated with meme coin hype, drove prices up.

CZ’s stance on meme coins highlights his caution toward viral marketing and its potential for manipulation. Meanwhile, the Meme Index presale raised over $4.4 million, creating a structured investment approach to meme coins, offering baskets of tokens based on volatility for investors looking to capitalize on the market's ups and downs.

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