Memecoin Journal - Week 13 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

April 07, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is up

  • SHIB is up

  • PumpSwap Surpasses $1.5B in Volume Within a Week

  • AI Tokens Outpacing Memecoins?

  • SHIB ETF Buzz Fuels Breakout Hopes

  • DELV CEO on Crypto’s Future

  • Hyperliquid JELLY Exploiter Faces $1M Loss

  • 57% Distrust Milei After LIBRA Scandal

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE up 13.0% and SHIB up 12.9%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant price surge, climbing approximately 7% within the last 24 hours to reach $0.181 on March 25, marking its highest level in nearly two weeks.

TradingView

The rally is being driven by multiple factors, including the launch of the Official Dogecoin Reserve, improving investor sentiment towards altcoins, and key technical indicators pointing to a potential breakout.

One of the most notable catalysts for DOGE’s recent rise is the Dogecoin Foundation’s initiative to create the Official Dogecoin Reserve. Announced on March 24, the foundation purchased 10 million DOGE, worth around $1.80 million, as part of its strategy to stabilize the asset and increase institutional confidence.

This move comes at a time when speculation surrounding the potential launch of a spot Dogecoin ETF in the U.S. is intensifying. Crypto betting platform Polymarket currently reflects a 72% probability of an ETF approval by the end of the year, up significantly from just 27% at the start of 2025.

DOGE’s momentum is also supported by a broader altcoin market rally. The total altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) has risen by 1.60% in the past 24 hours to reach $1.08 trillion.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap has declined by 0.61% during the same period, suggesting a rotation of capital from Bitcoin into higher-risk assets like Dogecoin. The rally is partially attributed to easing trade war concerns, which have prompted investors to embrace riskier assets.

Historically, memecoins like DOGE have performed well during periods of increased retail speculation. This trend is evident in the futures market, where DOGE’s open interest (OI) has climbed to $1.80 billion, recovering from a four-month low of $1.33 billion on March 11.

Coinglass

Additionally, funding rates have turned positive, indicating growing demand for leveraged long positions and reinforcing a bullish sentiment.

Technical analysts Rekt Capital and Henry (@LordOfAlts) have highlighted crucial price levels that could determine DOGE’s next major move. According to Rekt Capital, the $0.22 level is a key resistance point, representing pre-halving highs.

A sustained weekly close above this level would signal strong buyer control, potentially opening the door for a rally toward $0.28 and $0.338.

Meanwhile, Henry has identified a multi-month falling wedge formation that resembles DOGE’s pattern from late 2024, which resulted in a significant breakout. With Dogecoin now breaking out of this pattern once again, Henry suggests that a surge toward $0.50 and beyond could be on the horizon, mirroring past cycles. He notes that the last time a similar breakout occurred, DOGE saw a 365% increase in value.

In conclusion
Dogecoin’s rally is driven by both fundamental and technical factors. The Dogecoin Foundation’s reserve initiative has boosted confidence, while broader market trends support further upside. A breakout above $0.22 could signal a push toward $0.50 or higher, but failure to clear key resistance may lead to consolidation or a pullback.

Shiba Inu Rides Memecoin Market Rebound
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has surged by over 10% in the past 24 hours, fueled by a broader memecoin market rebound. Open interest in SHIB increased by 30%, coinciding with an anonymous user burning 1 billion SHIB tokens, effectively reducing its circulating supply. This move has sparked optimism among investors, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

The memecoin sector has seen a 20% gain in the past week, driven by improved market conditions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s softened stance on tariffs. Other memecoins, including SPX, FARTCOIN, and GIGA, have also recorded significant gains.

Investor enthusiasm is further fueled by discussions of a potential memecoin ETF. Asset managers like Canary Capital and Bitwise have submitted applications for Dogecoin, Pengu, and Bonk ETFs, prompting speculation about a future SHIB ETF. Lucie, a Shiba Inu core team member, hinted at this possibility, emphasizing SHIB’s widespread adoption across 110 exchanges and 212 trading pairs.

Shiba Inu recently broke through a crucial resistance level, forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. Analysts suggest that if SHIB maintains support above $0.0000136, it could rally another 15% to reach $0.000017. At press time, SHIB was trading near $0.0000149, with trading volume surging 45%, signaling heightened investor interest.

Santiment data shows SHIB’s weighted sentiment has improved from -0.601 to 0.00061, indicating growing optimism. Coinglass data reveals traders are positioned heavily on the long side, with $1.63 million in long positions at $0.00001413 and $430K in short positions at $0.00001513.

Conclusion
With bullish technical patterns, rising sentiment, and speculation about a SHIB ETF, Shiba Inu remains a strong contender in the memecoin rally. If key support levels hold, further upside remains likely.

Financial News

PumpSwap, the new Solana-based DEX from Pump.fun, has processed $1.52 billion in trading volume and 14 million swaps in its first week. Despite high volume, most trades are small, with 65.22% under $10. The platform holds a 19% market share, trailing Raydium's 45%.

PumpSwap removed the 6 SOL migration fee and now lists various tokens beyond memecoins. It operates on an AMM model like Raydium and Uniswap. As competition grows, Raydium launched LaunchLab, a memecoin factory, but it has yet to gain traction. PumpSwap's fee structure will evolve with Creator Revenue Sharing.

AI tokens have gained 8% on average, with NEAR leading at an 18% weekly surge, while memecoins rose 7%, maintaining speculative dominance. NEAR’s controlled supply offers a more stable macro environment compared to DOGE’s inflationary risks. Bitcoin’s stability could drive capital rotation into AI-driven projects, signaling a shift toward utility over hype.

Despite DOGE’s social traction, AI tokens are gaining momentum, potentially redefining speculative trends. As risk appetite remains high, the market faces a key question: Will AI tokens sustain their breakout, or will memecoins absorb liquidity at cycle peaks?

PEPE whales have shown strong activity with large holders scooping up 14.5 trillion tokens in one day, a 419% increase in inflow compared to previous levels. The number of large transactions rose from 96 to 260, with net inflows shifting from -105 billion to a positive 8.22 trillion tokens, indicating robust buying pressure.

This surge in whale activity contributed to an 11.9% price rise, peaking at $0.00000817 before retracing to $0.0000079. Market participants remain bullish, suggesting that sustained buying could drive prices towards $0.000090, while profit taking might cause a fallback to $0.0000074. Overall, strong whale activity boosts market optimism.

$TRUMP jumped over 10% to $12.25 after Donald Trump endorsed the memecoin on Truth Social. Despite a 26.4% decline over the past month, the token gained 9% in 24 hours, now trading at $11.94. Its market cap rose 8.3% to $2.37 billion, while daily trading volume spiked 375.1%, signaling increased investor interest.

The endorsement revitalized $TRUMP’s momentum after a period of stagnation, highlighting its volatility and sensitivity to political influence. Market activity suggests continued speculation, with traders reacting swiftly to Trump’s statements.

A trader turned $304 into $482,000 on Bubb (BUBB) with a 1,500x return before the token crashed 50%. The sharp sell-off triggered insider trading allegations, especially as memecoin scams rise. The pump began after Binance co-founder Yi He commented on BUBB, sparking listing speculation.

Similar schemes have emerged, including Wolf (WOLF), which collapsed 99% after insider wallets controlled 82% of supply. The Libra token, backed by Argentina’s president, also resulted in $286 million in losses. Experts call for stronger protections against bot-driven and insider-influenced token launches.

Adoption News

A SHIB ETF proposal has sparked speculation, though no issuer has applied yet. Market optimism remains high, with a 72% approval chance by 2025. SHIB’s selling pressure hit quarterly lows, with over 50 trillion SHIB accumulated since December.

However, network activity declined fivefold, raising concerns over user interest. SHIB is up 25% from March lows but faces resistance at $0.000016 before a potential 47% rally to $0.000020. While investor accumulation signals confidence, a sustainable breakout hinges on renewed market participation and a concrete ETF application.

AI-themed memecoins like Fartcoin, Virtuals Protocol, and Aixbt are among Smart Money’s top holdings, with Fartcoin leading at $28.68 million. These tokens have surged, driving an 8% increase in the AI memecoin sector’s market cap. However, experts remain cautious, arguing that the hype may not last beyond 2025.

Dragonfly Capital’s Haseeb Qureshi dismisses these tokens as speculative chatbots, while Qubic’s Alberto Fernández predicts a shift toward more utility-driven assets. As investors ride the AI wave, analysts warn that AI memecoins could either evolve into sustainable ecosystems or fade as market sentiment shifts.

DELV CEO Charles St. Louis explores the role of memecoins as onboarding tools, the stability of fixed-rate DeFi, and the growing adoption of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). He highlights institutional interest from BlackRock and JPMorgan, emphasizing how tokenization improves liquidity. On DeFi governance, he notes that gradual decentralization and regulatory clarity are leading to more structured models.

He also discusses Trump’s crypto policies, including reduced regulation by enforcement and potential national Bitcoin reserves. St. Louis believes stablecoins and RWAs will be the foundation for institutional crypto adoption, shaping the next phase of digital finance.

Changpeng Zhao opened a 24.7x leveraged long on MUBARAK via APX Finance to check for Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) issues. The trade triggered a 26% surge in APX and a 5.5% rise in MUBARAK within minutes. CZ later clarified it was a routine test, not an investment signal.

His experiment follows concerns about MEV on BNB Chain, where users lost $1.5 billion in 2024 due to transaction manipulation. While MEV is often linked to Ethereum, BNB Chain faces similar challenges. CZ’s trades frequently impact markets, but he has yet to share his findings.

Shiba Inu’s burn rate spiked over 774,000% in 24 hours, destroying 18.7 million SHIB, but the price failed to react. The burn rate quickly dropped 31%, raising doubts about its sustainability. SHIB faced resistance at the 50 EMA ($0.00001298) despite a 1.58% gain.

Only 36% of holders remain in profit, while whale dominance at 74% heightens volatility. A 0.75 correlation with Bitcoin suggests broader market trends could dictate SHIB’s next move. Without significant accumulation or a technical breakout, the burns may have little impact on price momentum.

Ecosystem News

A trader attempting to manipulate Hyperliquid’s market lost nearly $1 million after exploiting JELLY perpetual futures, according to Arkham Intelligence. The trader used three accounts to build leverage but was restricted before fully withdrawing profits. Despite withdrawing $6.26 million, $1 million remains stuck.

Hyperliquid closed JELLY markets, nullifying floating profits. If the funds remain inaccessible, the trader faces a significant loss. This incident follows similar market manipulation attempts, including a $200 million Ethereum liquidation that drained liquidity pools. Hyperliquid has since tightened risk controls to prevent further exploits.

A poll shows 57.6% of Argentinians distrust President Javier Milei after the $4.6 billion LIBRA crypto scandal, while 36% still support him. His approval rating has steadily declined, dropping from 47.3% in November to 41.6% in March. Other polls present mixed results, with some showing a 62.4% approval.

Despite impeachment calls, Milei’s party remains the frontrunner for Argentina’s October election. Economic concerns persist, with only 43% believing he has controlled inflation, and 63% opposing his efforts to secure an IMF loan. Milei denies promoting LIBRA, claiming he merely "spread the word" before its rapid collapse.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen slammed Hyperliquid for its handling of the JELLY token incident, warning it risks becoming “FTX 2.0.” On March 26, Hyperliquid delisted JELLY perpetual futures, citing “suspicious activity,” sparking centralization concerns. A trader allegedly manipulated prices before self-liquidating a $6 million short.

Critics, including BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, questioned Hyperliquid’s decentralization. The network previously suffered a $4 million loss from a whale liquidation. Hyperliquid, which dominates 70% of leveraged perpetuals trading, relies on just four validators per set, raising governance concerns compared to networks like Ethereum and Solana.

Binance has suspended an employee following an investigation into insider trading. The staffer, formerly with BNB Chain, allegedly used privileged information to buy tokens before a public launch and profited after the announcement. Binance is cooperating with authorities and may take legal action.

The incident highlights persistent insider trading issues in crypto, with past cases involving Coinbase, Mystiko Network, and Aerodrome Finance. Binance itself has faced similar allegations before, including during the launch of Solana-based BOME. The case underscores ongoing concerns over market fairness and transparency in the cryptocurrency industry.

Solana has become a hub for insider-driven memecoin schemes, with cabals orchestrating pump-and-dump cycles. High-profile figures like Donald Trump and Javier Milei have fueled memecoin popularity, but retail investors often bear the brunt of losses. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) receive early allocations at deep discounts, while trading bots manipulate prices through "sniping."

Platforms like Pump.fun and Meteora facilitate these schemes, creating a zero-sum game. With memecoins excluded from SEC oversight, retail investors lack protection. Cathie Wood warns of inevitable losses, reinforcing the risks of investing in manipulated, utility-lacking digital assets.

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