Memecoin Journal - Week 11 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

March 17, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is down

  • SHIB is down

  • Solana Revenue Drops 93% Due To Memecoin

  • Trump Memecoin Generates $350M

  • Solana ETF Prospects Grow

  • NY Bill Targets Memecoin Fraud

  • Coinbase to Halt Meme Coin Trading in New York

  • Argentine Lawyer Seeks Interpol Warrant for LIBRA Creator

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE down 21.0% and SHIB down 10.2%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with recent developments fueling speculation about its price trajectory. The potential approval of a Bitwise Dogecoin ETF in 2025, along with significant whale accumulation, has created a bullish outlook for the meme coin.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing an application for a Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, which could trigger increased investment and trading activity. The probability of approval by the end of 2025 has risen to 70%, reflecting growing market confidence. If approved, DOGE could experience substantial upward momentum.

Whale activity has intensified, with large holders accumulating 1.7 billion DOGE ($298 million) in 72 hours. This accumulation occurred as Dogecoin's price dropped from $0.22 to $0.16, suggesting confidence in a price recovery. Analyst Lumen noted that if DOGE reclaims $0.20 before the ETF approval, it could rally to $0.50 due to increased liquidity from institutional investors.

Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.1694, up 2.5% in the last 24 hours. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signals upward momentum, with the MACD line at 0.00189 and the signal line at -0.00783. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains positive at 0.17, indicating strong buying pressure.

Additionally, DOGE recently tested critical support at $0.14 before rebounding above $0.16. Resistance sits at $0.20, with a potential surge to $0.30 if bullish momentum continues. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin maintains its price stability and broader market conditions remain favorable, DOGE could see a significant uptrend.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that investor sentiment around Dogecoin is at its lowest in over a year, historically a precursor to strong reversals. Meanwhile, Kevin Capital pointed out that DOGE has retested key macro trend lines, including the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting a strong support base.

Trader Tardigrade noted that DOGE is forming a 5-wave Ascending Broadening Wedge, indicating a possible breakout. The analyst added that a bullish RSI divergence further supports an imminent reversal.

Dogecoin's outlook remains bullish, driven by whale accumulation, positive technical signals, and the potential Bitwise ETF approval. If DOGE holds key support and breaks past resistance at $0.20, it could target $0.30 in the near term, with $0.50 a possibility in 2025. However, broader market conditions will play a crucial role in sustaining this momentum.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has shown a remarkable recovery, surging 9% in the past 24 hours after hitting a seven-month low of $0.000010. This rebound comes as buyers re-enter the market, driving SHIB’s price to $0.00001212 at press time. The recent rally follows a steep 23.79% decline over the past month, highlighting renewed investor interest.

Source: Santiment

According to on-chain data from Santiment, SHIB’s Weighted Sentiment turned positive after three days in the negative zone. This shift indicates growing optimism, with investors seizing the opportunity to accumulate at lower price levels. Further data from MobChart confirms strong buying pressure, as both Delta and Order Imbalances have turned positive, signaling more buy orders than sell orders.

Source: Mobchart

Coinglass data reveals that SHIB’s exchange netflow has turned negative, with outflows exceeding inflows by -60.84K SHIB. This suggests strong investor accumulation, often a precursor to a sustained price rebound. A negative netflow typically indicates that traders are moving assets into private wallets rather than selling on exchanges.

Technical analysts show that SHIB successfully tested the $0.000010 support, triggering a bounce to $0.000012. A bullish crossover on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further supports the upward momentum, suggesting SHIB could break out of its descending triangle pattern. If the positive sentiment persists, SHIB may target $0.000013 next. However, a failure to maintain bullish momentum could lead to a pullback to $0.0000115.

Looking ahead, CoinCodex’s machine learning algorithm predicts a 19.16% price increase for SHIB before the end of March, potentially reaching $0.000015 on average and a high of $0.000026.

The forecast suggests a gradual correction between April and July, followed by a sharp rally in August, where SHIB could surge by 337% to trade between $0.000011 and $0.000053. By the end of 2025, SHIB is expected to trade in the $0.000019-$0.000028 range, reflecting long-term bullish prospects.

While short-term indicators point to a continued recovery, SHIB’s ability to sustain its gains will depend on broader market conditions and investor sentiment. The combination of strong buying pressure, positive exchange netflows, and bullish technical signals suggests that SHIB could see further upside.

However, traders should remain cautious, as the market remains volatile, and any slowdown in momentum could trigger a pullback. For now, SHIB’s recovery presents a promising setup for further gains in the coming weeks.

Financial News

Solana’s network revenue has plunged from $55.3 million in mid-January to $4 million, a 93% decline, as memecoin trading cools. DeFi total value locked (TVL) also dropped nearly 50% to $6.4 billion.

Pump.fun, responsible for 80% of Solana’s revenue, saw daily earnings fall from $15 million to $800,000. The hype peaked with Donald Trump’s TRUMP token, but both TRUMP and MELANIA have since crashed 86% and 95%, respectively. Solana’s price has followed suit, plummeting 58% from its January high of $293 to $122, reflecting the fading memecoin mania.

Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin has earned at least $350 million, with $314 million from token sales and $36 million from Solana fees. The Trump Organization-affiliated CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight own 80% of the supply. Initial sales raised millions, with evidence suggesting price stabilization efforts.

TRUMP’s value has dropped 82% from its $75 peak, but Trump-linked wallets still hold tokens worth $10.8 billion. The memecoin’s launch spurred 700 copycats and regulatory scrutiny, with lawmakers proposing bans and penalties for political figures involved in memecoins. Meanwhile, regulators assert that memecoins fall outside securities laws.

Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) surged 9.2%, 7.9%, and 16.3%, respectively, while the Official Trump (TRUMP) token gained just 1.5%, lagging behind competitors. TRUMP is now down 21% for the week, falling 85% from its all-time high.

Analysts attribute this decline to Trump’s slipping public approval and the launch of Melania’s rival token. Meanwhile, Trump’s ongoing trade war has weighed on traditional markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.6% over five days. Despite this, meme coins rebounded 8%, signaling resilience in the sector.

Three PEPE whales purchased 689.79 billion PEPE worth $4.3M, signaling confidence in a potential price rebound. The TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal, with PEPE closing 4.74% higher at $0.00000597. Bulls could push the price to $0.00000620–$0.00000660, but rejection may lead to consolidation.

A drop below $0.00000525 would invalidate the bullish setup. Whale transactions have slowed since February, but rising trade volume could fuel further gains. If activity declines below 200 transactions, PEPE risks falling to $0.00000060, signaling weaker demand.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) rebounded 9% after hitting a seven-month low, climbing from $0.000010 to $0.00001212. This recovery signals renewed investor interest, with sentiment turning positive after days of decline. Market data shows strong buying pressure, with exchange outflows exceeding inflows, indicating accumulation.

A bullish RSI crossover suggests further upside, with SHIB potentially reclaiming $0.000013 if momentum holds. However, a loss of buying pressure could lead to a pullback toward $0.0000115. SHIB’s ability to maintain gains depends on continued market optimism and sustained buying activity.

Adoption News

Shiba Inu has introduced a fishing mini-game in its Metaverse, enhancing engagement with skill progression, resource management, and trading. Players can earn in-game currency and collect rare items, while virtual landowners gain unique benefits. TREAT token holders receive early access.

This marks the first in-game economy feature within Shib: The Metaverse, complementing past ecosystem games. Meanwhile, Agent Shiboshi’s 1v1 duel feature boosts SHIB deflation. SHIB’s price rose 5.05% to $0.00001230, but trading volume declined 35.22% to $309M, reflecting mixed market sentiment.

VanEck and 21Shares have filed for the first U.S. Solana (SOL) ETFs, aiming to position SOL alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum in regulatory approval. The move signals increasing institutional interest, despite uncertainty over the SEC’s stance on SOL’s classification as a security.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana has faced regulatory scrutiny, but analysts see its ETF potential due to its network growth and liquidity. If approved, these ETFs could drive significant SOL adoption. The filings come amid a broader push for crypto ETFs, with growing speculation that the SEC may expand its acceptance beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the future.

Memecoins have shifted from internet jokes to a major force in crypto markets, accounting for 65% of Raydium’s trading volume in November 2024. While driven by virality and speculation, their extreme volatility poses risks. The key to sustainability lies in decentralized governance, with DAOs ensuring transparency and stability.

Projects like Floki Inu integrate NFTs and payments, proving memecoins can evolve beyond hype. As the market debates their future, balancing decentralization with responsible governance is crucial. Whether memecoins mature into a lasting asset class or remain speculative depends on industry collaboration and structural reforms.

Memecoin activity has plummeted following failed launches and rug pulls, with Pump.fun’s token creation dropping over 90%. Trump’s TRUMP and MELANIA tokens initially fueled a surge, but the LIBRA rug pull wiped out 94% of its value, accelerating the downturn. The total memecoin market cap fell from $124B in December to $54B.

CoinGecko’s Bobby Ong notes memecoins are cyclical, with most failing while a few like DOGE and SHIB endure due to strong communities. As interest shifts to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Ong predicts only a handful of memecoins will survive long-term market fluctuations.

New York lawmakers introduced Bill A06515 to combat rug pull scams in crypto, establishing criminal penalties for “virtual token fraud.” Assemblymember Clyde Vanel proposed the bill to protect investors from deceptive practices.

The move follows the collapse of the Libra token, which lost 94% of its value after insiders allegedly drained over $107 million in liquidity. Regulatory experts stress the need for law enforcement involvement in tackling such scams. The growing trend of memecoin fraud, particularly on Solana, has led to significant investor losses and increased scrutiny from regulators.

Ecosystem News

Coinbase will suspend trading of Floki (FLOKI), Turbo (TURBO), and Gigachad (GIGA) in New York starting April 14, citing routine asset reviews. Despite the announcement, prices remained stable, with Floki up 3.6%, Giga rising 1.1%, and Turbo gaining 5.4%. Legal experts speculate the move may be tied to a pending case in the state.

Meme coins have surged in popularity, driven by platforms like Pump.fun, which launched 8.5 million tokens since 2024. While the SEC does not classify meme coins as securities, experts warn of high trading risks in this volatile market.

Meteora co-founder Ben Chow’s X account was reportedly hacked after posting accusations against memecoin founders behind LIBRA, MELANIA, and TRUMP tokens. The post, which led to his resignation, alleged the creators intended to extract maximum funds. Meteora flagged the statement as fraudulent and warned users against clicking links. Chow’s account was later recovered, and the post was deleted.

Alleged screenshots of fund extraction discussions surfaced but remain unverified. Meanwhile, Argentine President Javier Milei faced backlash after endorsing the LIBRA token, which surged and then collapsed, leading to investor losses and calls for impeachment.

Argentine lawyer Gregorio Dalbon has requested an Interpol Red Notice for LIBRA token co-creator Hayden Davis, citing a risk of flight due to his financial resources. Dalbon’s request, filed with prosecutor Eduardo Taiano and judge María Servini, follows allegations that Davis played a key role in the controversial token’s promotion and subsequent crash.

Davis, who reportedly profited $100 million, denied wrongdoing. President Javier Milei, who shared the token online, faces fraud accusations but claims he only "spread the word." Allegations also suggest Davis offered payments to Milei’s sister, though he denies any financial transactions.

Argentine authorities are intensifying their probe into the collapse of LIBRA, a Solana-based memecoin, with prosecutor Eduardo Taiano pushing for asset freezes and access to transaction records. Investigators aim to identify those who profited from LIBRA’s $4 billion peak before insiders allegedly withdrew $107 million, leading to a crash.

The inquiry also scrutinizes deleted social media posts, including President Milei’s endorsement. Blockchain data shows that 86% of traders lost a combined $251 million. Opposition parties call the scandal a national disgrace, demanding accountability as allegations of insider trading and market manipulation mount.

Despite declining Solana memecoin trading volume, a Pump.fun trader has secured nearly $40 million in profit. Weekly volume on Pump.fun has dropped to $814 million from a peak of $3.2 billion in January, while the Graduation Rate of successful tokens remains below 1%.

The broader Solana memecoin market mirrors this trend, with its market cap plunging from $30 billion to $8 billion. TRUMP, once valued at $14 billion, has fallen to $2.5 billion. Despite the downturn, traders continue to find opportunities, raising questions about the sector’s long-term sustainability.

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