Memecoin Journal - Week 10 2025

Weekly update on all things Memecoins

March 10, 2025

TL;DR

  • DOGE is up

  • SHIB is down

  • Memecoin Market Crashes 56%

  • Dogecoin ETF Speculation Fuels Potential Breakout

  • Ronaldinho’s Token Launch Sparks Controversy

  • AI Token Creation Plummets as Memecoins Surge

  • SEC Commissioner Challenges Memecoin Ruling

  • Ripple’s Schwartz on XRP-Linked Memecoin Liquidity

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Dogecoin Price

Crypto is down this week, with DOGE up 3.0% and SHIB down 4.2%:

Weekly Analysis

This weekly analysis is majorly on the top two MEME coin

Dogecoin (DOGE) has captured investor attention following significant whale accumulation and bullish technical indicators. Analysts anticipate a potential rally fueled by institutional interest, historical price trends, and improving market conditions.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez reported that Dogecoin whales accumulated 180 million coins within 24 hours, with transactions centered around $0.20. Such large-scale buying suggests strong market confidence, signaling potential price appreciation despite recent market volatility.

Source: Ali Charts on X

Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlighted that Dogecoin’s weekly RSI is at levels last seen in October 2023 when DOGE was at $0.10. The price is also testing a long-standing trendline from early 2023, along with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $0.19. These indicators suggest an oversold condition, providing an attractive accumulation opportunity.

Additionally, DOGE’s MACD on the three-day chart is nearing a bullish crossover, a pattern historically linked to trend reversals. If confirmed, it could signal the start of a sustained uptrend.

Dogecoin, like the broader crypto market, recently faced declines due to macroeconomic concerns. February saw DOGE drop 19% monthly, influenced by new U.S. import tariffs that initially pressured risk assets. However, analysts suggest these policies may lead to looser monetary conditions, benefiting crypto in the long run.

MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor noted that these tariffs could weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates. Such a shift could inject liquidity into the crypto market, supporting DOGE’s recovery.

The odds of a spot Dogecoin ETF approval in the U.S. have risen to 63%, according to analyst Kevin. If approved, institutional exposure could drive significant price appreciation. CryptoELlTES projected that an ETF listing could trigger a 5x rally, mirroring trends seen with other major crypto assets.

Trader Tardigrade pointed out that DOGE is following a "Mean Reversion" pattern, which often precedes a return to historical price averages. Additionally, a recent daily close formed a Dragonfly Doji, a bullish reversal pattern suggesting that selling pressure may be diminishing.

Source: Trader Tardigrade on X

Analyst Chandler also noted that DOGE’s MVRV ratio has not yet shown the bearish divergence seen in past cycles, further reinforcing a positive outlook.

With strong whale accumulation, bullish technical signals, and growing institutional interest, Dogecoin appears primed for a potential breakout. While macroeconomic factors remain a consideration, analysts remain optimistic about DOGE’s long-term prospects, with a possible rally on the horizon.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) Shiba Inu (SHIB) is holding above the $0.000013 support level, gaining momentum ahead of the Trump Crypto Summit on March 7. The meme coin has recorded slight gains in the past 24 hours, mirroring Bitcoin’s 5% surge. Analysts are monitoring whether the summit could trigger a major rally.

The upcoming summit, hosted by Donald Trump, will feature key industry figures, including Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev. His presence has fueled speculation about SHIB, as Robinhood remains a key trading platform for the token. Tenev may highlight SHIB’s expansion beyond its meme coin origins, potentially boosting sentiment.

Some analysts believe the event could influence regulatory policies, with Trump possibly unveiling pro-crypto measures. Investors are watching closely to see if such developments could drive SHIB higher.

SHIB is trading at $0.00001325, up 1.38%, with resistance at $0.000015 and support near $0.00001. A breakout above $0.000015 could push SHIB toward $0.000018 and possibly $0.00002. If the summit fuels bullish sentiment, SHIB may even attempt a run toward its all-time high.

The MACD shows bullish momentum, with the histogram indicating reduced selling pressure. However, SHIB needs to hold above $0.00001350 for confirmation. The RSI is at 47, signaling neutral conditions. If buyers maintain control, SHIB could test resistance at $0.000015. A drop below $0.00001250 might lead to a retest of $0.00001 support.

Despite SHIB’s near-term optimism, the broader memecoin sector has plummeted. Since December 2024, the market cap has dropped 56%, falling from $124 billion to $54 billion as of March 5. Gains from Trump’s November election win have been erased, with volatility driven by new memecoin launches and speculation.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Analysts cite economic uncertainty, regulatory concerns, and insider trading as key reasons for the decline. Anmol Singh, co-founder of Zeta Markets, noted that the “memecoin bubble has burst” due to shifting market dynamics and increased speculation.

As SHIB approaches the Trump Crypto Summit, investors are watching whether sentiment will shift. A strong market reaction could reignite memecoin enthusiasm, but broader market conditions remain a challenge.

Financial News

The memecoin market has plunged 56% from its December peak, erasing all gains since Trump’s election. Market cap dropped from $124 billion to $54 billion, driven by economic uncertainty, lack of regulation, and insider trading. Analysts predict consolidation around major tokens like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and the Official Trump memecoin, while smaller coins fade.

Dogecoin leads with 53% dominance, followed by SHIB and PEPE. Experts warn of shifting liquidity as investors become cautious. Despite the downturn, some believe memecoins remain integral to crypto, with focus shifting to well-established assets like DOGE.

Pump.fun’s trading volume fell 63%, from $119 billion in January to $44 billion in February, its lowest since October 2024. New token listings also declined sharply. Co-founder Alon Cohen attributed the drop to the broader market downturn.

Growing concerns over insider trading and rug pulls, highlighted by the $107 million “Libragate” scandal, have further dampened interest in memecoins. Regulatory scrutiny is rising, with the SEC affirming that memecoins aren’t securities but warning against fraud. Despite the decline, Pump.fun’s February volume remains the fourth-highest since its 2024 launch.

Solana (SOL) has fallen over 45% since the launch of the Trump memecoin, dropping from $261 to $143. Industry experts suggest memecoins are diverting liquidity away from SOL, with investors reallocating funds instead of injecting new capital.

Despite an $8.75 billion USDC mint, Solana has struggled, though it rebounded above $140 following a $2 billion token unlock. Institutional caution, macroeconomic factors, and security concerns, including the recent $1.4 billion Bybit hack, continue to weigh on the market, delaying recovery and limiting upside momentum for major cryptocurrencies like Solana.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) holds above the $0.000013 support level as bullish sentiment rises. Speculation around the March 7 Trump Crypto Summit fuels optimism, with industry leaders like Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev expected to discuss SHIB’s advancements.

Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout above $0.000015, with targets at $0.000018 and $0.00002. MACD signals upward momentum, but SHIB needs to stay above $0.00001350 for confirmation. If the summit boosts sentiment, SHIB could attempt a new all-time high. Market watchers are closely monitoring developments to gauge the token’s next move.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, signaling a potential rally. Resistance levels at $0.50, $0.75, and $1.00 are key, with analysts speculating on a long-term target of $5.00. Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF filing has sparked institutional interest, adding to the momentum.

DOGE trades at $0.1935, with RSI near oversold levels, suggesting a possible rebound. A breakdown below $0.18 could extend losses, while sustained support above $0.19 may drive a recovery. Options volume is rising, indicating increased speculative activity. If the ETF gains traction, DOGE could enter a new price discovery phase.

Adoption News

Soccer legend Ronaldinho launched his memecoin, Star10 (STAR10), on the BNB Chain on March 3, quickly reaching a $397 million market cap before dropping to $274 million. The launch raised concerns as 35% of the supply was allocated to insiders, including 20% for Ronaldinho.

Security risks were flagged due to initial contract ownership, which was later renounced. Amid past celebrity-endorsed token scandals, industry watchers remain cautious. Despite Ronaldinho’s claims of exclusive benefits and charitable donations, skepticism lingers, with experts warning of potential risks in the broader memecoin market.

Memecoins, once community-driven, are increasingly used for retail investor exploitation through scams and insider trading. The $4 billion collapse of Libra (LIBRA), endorsed by Argentine President Javier Milei, highlights this trend, as insiders withdrew $107 million, causing a 94% price drop.

Regulatory concerns grow as insider groups manipulate markets, replacing organic growth with pump-and-dump schemes. Despite scandals, US crypto regulation may remain unaffected, as officials view memecoins as collectibles rather than securities. However, experts warn that fraudulent activities like rug pulls fall under law enforcement jurisdiction, raising questions about memecoin legitimacy and investor protection.

AI agent token creation has dropped 99.5% since December, signaling a market cooldown. Meanwhile, memecoins are resurging, fueled by an SEC ruling that exempts them from securities classification. Solana's ecosystem stands to benefit as speculative capital shifts. While AI tokens like VIRTUAL and AI16Z struggle, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are gaining traction.

The SEC ruling could drive liquidity into memecoins but warns against fraudulent projects. Solana, a key hub for memecoin launches, may see increased on-chain activity, potentially sparking another trading frenzy as AI-driven speculation fades.

Bitwise has filed a 19b-4 form with the SEC for a Dogecoin ETF, with Coinbase Custody managing assets and BNY Mellon overseeing administration. The move signals growing institutional interest in DOGE, offering regulated exposure through a cash-based model.

Approval odds have risen to 66%, yet DOGE’s price fell 11.69%. Competing proposals from Grayscale and Rex Shares add to the race. Meanwhile, interest in altcoin ETFs, including Solana and XRP, is growing. If approved, Bitwise’s DOGE ETF could be among the first memecoin ETFs in the U.S., bringing mainstream investment access to Dogecoin.

Zora has introduced $ZORA, a community-focused memecoin on Base, designed to support onchain creatives. With a total supply of 10 billion, the token is purely for cultural engagement, not investment. The first airdrop snapshot was taken on March 3, 2025, with another scheduled before launch.

35% of the supply is allocated to incentives, liquidity, and airdrops, while 20% is reserved for long-term community growth. Users can boost eligibility by engaging with Zora’s platform. As a key liquidity driver, $ZORA is set to reshape onchain media and content monetization within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Ecosystem News

SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw dissented on the agency’s stance that memecoins aren’t securities, arguing they meet the Howey test due to coordination between developers and promoters. She warned that the SEC’s definition is too broad, potentially classifying most cryptocurrencies as memecoins.

Meanwhile, US lawmakers are pushing stricter regulations, including the proposed MEME Act, which would ban officials from endorsing digital assets. Former CFTC attorney Elizabeth Davis believes the CFTC may soon oversee memecoins, expecting clearer regulations within a year to address legal ambiguities and growing concerns over scams and unethical promotions.

House Democrats introduced the MEME Act to ban top officials from issuing or promoting memecoins, citing financial exploitation. Representative Sam Liccardo claimed Trump and his team misled 800,000 investors, causing $2 billion in losses. The crackdown follows similar efforts by Senator Cortez Masto and growing concerns over insider trading.

Recent memecoin crashes, including TRUMP’s 85% drop from $75 to $11 and MELANIA’s 93% plunge, highlight market risks. Lawmakers argue the legislation will prevent government officials from profiting at the public’s expense while addressing foreign influence and unethical financial activities linked to digital assets.

The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance has stated that memecoins do not meet the Howey test criteria for securities, classifying them as collectibles rather than investments. The agency noted that their value is driven by speculation and social trends rather than structured business efforts.

While memecoins won’t be subject to securities laws, fraudulent activities remain punishable. The statement reflects a shift from the SEC’s previous stance under Gary Gensler, marking a pro-crypto regulatory approach. However, the SEC clarified that this is a staff interpretation with no legal force, leaving room for future reassessments.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has criticized Donald Trump and Elon Musk for pushing IRS layoffs that she claims help billionaires evade taxes. The IRS is reportedly planning to cut nearly half its workforce, with 7,000 employees already laid off.

Warren condemned Trump’s economic agenda, calling it a “sandstorm of chaos” designed to benefit the wealthy at the expense of working families. She also accused Musk of influencing federal downsizing efforts, arguing that the administration is dismantling government agencies to serve billionaire interests while burdening ordinary taxpayers.

Ripple CTO David Schwartz highlighted how memecoin liquidity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is closely tied to XRP’s price. Most memecoins rely on an Automated Market Maker (AMM) pairing with XRP, causing their fiat value to move in tandem with XRP’s price fluctuations.

While these tokens can experience independent shifts due to speculation and sentiment, XRP’s price changes often drive profit-taking, adding volatility. Schwartz emphasized that investing in XRPL memecoins carries risk, as their value is partially dependent on XRP’s price movements, making them an option for those seeking high-risk, high-volatility exposure.

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